KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 414433263*1.84 = 762,557,203.92 (Medium)
NTA per share : 731766/411450 = 1.78
P/BV : 1.84/1.78 = 1.0337
Forecast P/E now : (1.84-0.05)/0.1841 = 9.72 (Moderate)
ROE : 9.7% (Low)
DY : 0.05/1.84*100 = 2.72% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.607+0.673+0.7668)/3 = 0.6823 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 433296/454034 = 0.9543 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (132440+174073)/2/(1046534/365) = 53 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless cash flow improve
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue remain high but profit dropped a lot, bad cash flow, high debt but slightly decreased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter, the Group recorded an increase of 31.7% in revenue and 237.7% in profit before taxation from previous corresponding quarter
- The favourable result is mainly attributed to the higher average price of CPO under the Palm Bio-Integration business segment. As the bulk of the finished products from our Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading and the Wood Products segments are exported to Europe and USA, the unfavourable results were affected by the strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the foreign currencies and also continued to be affected from the uneven recovery of the global economic downturn in the recent months
- The Group’s revenue for the quarter under review was 15.3% lower than the immediate preceding quarter. As profit before taxation was 24.8% lower than the immediate preceding quarter. The overall result in the immediate preceding quarter was significantly impacted by the profitability of Palm and Bio-Integration segment due to higher CPO/PK production during seasonal peak period. Cocoa Manufacturing and Trading segment recorded a lower revenue and loss attributed to declined demand from traders due to overall high cocoa bean and its product prices. The strengthening of the Ringgit Malaysia against US dollars and Euro currencies have affected the Wood Products segment in respect of its overall selling prices and margin despite a higher revenue
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate PE on current price 1.84 = 9.72(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

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