KLCI Stock - PLUS / 5052 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 5000000000*3.6 = 18,000,000,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (6065779-3638)/5000000 = 1.21
P/BV : 3.6/1.21 = 2.98
Forecast P/E now : (3.6-0.165)/0.2655 = 13.53 (Moderate)
ROE : 19.7% (Moderate)
DY : 0.165/3.6*100 = 4.58% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1948+0.169+0.1905)/3 = 0.1848 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 3645088/895573 = 4.07 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (63512+65313)/2/(3621351/365) = 6 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.72+0.17 = 3.89 (PE 14, EPS 0.2655, DPS 0.165)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.4
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing when compare to previous year corresponding period, good cash flow, high debt and still increased, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 3.3
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 4.25 (7 Jul 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Toll collection for the first quarter 2010 was higher by 10.3% as compared to the first quarter 2009. The increase was mainly due to increase in PLUS's toll collection, attributable to a traffic growth of 9.1% in the current quarter
- Total revenue for the current quarter was 10.2% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter.The growth is primarily attributable to higher toll collection and higher toll compensation of RM18.8 million following the improvement in traffic volume
- Profit before income tax for the current quarter was RM46.7 million or 12.6% higher than the preceding year corresponding quarter, primarily attributable to higher toll revenue, mitigated by higher amortisation and depreciation, and higher finance costs
- Toll collection for the current quarter was lower by 4.3% as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. This was mainly due to higher traffic volume growth during festive periods and long year-end school holidays in the fourth quarter 2009. Accordingly, total revenue for the current quarter was 4.8% lower than the immediate preceding quarter
- Profit before income tax for the current quarter was 4.3% lower than the immediate preceding quarter, mainly due to lower revenue mitigated by lower operating expenditure
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2414*1.1 = 0.2655, estimate PE on current price 3.6 = 13.53(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2373*1.1 = 0.261, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.82/11.74 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2335*1.1 = 0.2569, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.79 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2196*1.1 = 0.2416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.79 (DPS 0.16)

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