KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 1276722448*2.19 = 2,796,022,161.12 (Large)
NTA per share : (1049275-149263)/1276722 = 0.7
P/BV : 2.19/0.7 = 3.1286
Forecast P/E now : (2.19-0.07)/0.1345 = 15.76 (High)
ROE : 13.49% (Moderate)
DY : 0.07/2.19*100 = 3.2% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.9599+0.958+0.8033)/3 = 0.9071 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 2088677/1542907 = 1.3537 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1400418+1811910)/2/(3211425/365) = 182 days (Long)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue decreased but profit increased, bad cash flow, high debt and increased, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 1.9
Risk Rating : MODERATE
ECM Target Price : 2.64

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- Revenue increased by 38.4% from the preceding quarter, mainly due to higher revenue from the Installation of Pipeline and Facilities (“IPF”), drilling and marine services divisions
- Profit before tax increased by 36.2% from the previous quarter, mainly due to a lower loss in the marine services division
- Revenue for the current quarter was 6.4% lower compared to last year's corresponding first quarter, mainly due to lower activities in the drilling and marine services divisions, partially off-set by the IPF division’s higher revenue
- Profit before tax was an increase of 44.8% compared to the preceding year’s corresponding quarter mainly due to higher contribution from IPF activities and the drilling division
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate PE on current price 2.19 = 15.76(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

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