KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 345000000*2.73 = 941,850,000 (Medium)
NTA per share : (335489-1168)/345000 = 0.97
P/BV : 2.73/0.97 = 2.8144
Forecast P/E now : (2.73-0.14)/0.2297 = 11.28 (High)
ROE : 27.09% (High)
DY : 0.14/2.73*100 = 5.13% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8778+0.9386+0.8257)/3 = 0.8807 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 220393/44183 = 4.9882 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (46178+38261)/2/(334883/365) = 46 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.3+0.14 = 2.44 (PE 10, EPS 0.2297, DPS 0.14)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 2.3
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreased, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 3.77 (06 Jul 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The revenue for the current quarter under review was lower than the immediate preceding quarter revenue, mainly due to drop in overseas demand. The current quarter profit before tax has decreased as compared to the immediate preceding quarter profit before tax, in line with the drop in revenue
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate PE on current price 2.73 = 11.28(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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