KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 993454000*9.31 = 9,249,056,740 (Large)
NTA per share : 4558547/993454 = 4.59
P/BV : 9.31/4.59 = 2.0283
Forecast P/E now : (9.31.0.6)/0.72 = 12.1 (High)
ROE : 16.39% (Moderate)
DY : 0.6/9.31*100 = 6.44% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (2.6237+3.7009+2.5903+2.9917)/4 = 2.9766 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 3960901/3143210 = 1.2601 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (2297248+1726416)/2/(20687042/365) = 35 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 8.64+0.6 = 9.24(PE 12, EPS 0.72, DPS 0.6)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 8.1
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit decreasing good cash flow, above moderate debt and increased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 8.9
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue increase was a result of higher average selling price and higher sales volume. However, the year-to-date group revenue was decrease compared to the results of last year. This was contributed mainly by the lower average selling price during the year
- Group profit before tax for the quarter ended 31 March 2010 was decrease from the corresponding period last year mainly due to higher operating expenditures. However, year-to-date group profit before tax was increase from last year. This was mainly contributed by higher gross profit during the year
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate PE on current price 9.31 = 12.1(DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 44.1/40.3 (DPS 0.45)

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