KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 152785770*2.44 = 372,797,278.80 (Small)
NTA per share : (213621-3396)/149143 = 1.41
P/BV : 2.44/1.41 = 1.7305
Forecast P/E now : (2.44-0.07)/0.209 = 11.34 (Moderate)
ROE : 14.1% (Moderate)
DY : 0.07/2.44*100 = 2.87% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8316+0.7916+0.8185)/3 = 0.8139 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 171460/103590 = 1.6552 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (78839+82932)/2/(319910/365) = 92 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.51+0.07 = 2.58 (PE 12, EPS 0.209, DPS 0.07)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 2.4
My Comment : Revenue increasing, profit increased, cash on hand still strong, above medium debt and slightly increased, navps increasing, latex price increasing, USD/MYR recovering
Technical Support Price : 2.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 3.73 (28 Sep 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):

- The Group’s revenue and profit before tax improved 20.2% and 50.0% respectively compared to the comparative quarter last year. The improvement in revenue and profit before tax is attributed to the continuous expansion in production capacity and improvement in the distribution business. Profit before tax of the third quarter ended 31 July 2009 is lower due to higher provision of forex hedging

- The Group revenue and profit before tax was 7.7% and 9.7% higher compared to the preceding quarter. This marginal improvement is mainly due to the higher production utilization rate

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate PE on current price 2.44 = 11.34(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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