KLCI Stock - SPSETIA / 8664 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 1016808318*5.01 = 5,094,209,673.18 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 2109360/1034539 = 2.04
P/BV : 5.01/2.04 = 2.4559
Forecast P/E now : (5.01-0.15)/0.1932 = 25.16 (High)
ROE : 11.16% (Moderate)
DY : 0.15/5.01*100 = 2.99% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4066+0.3859+0.3604)/3 = 0.3843 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2252204/889511 = 2.532 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (548048+309711)/2/(1581487/365) = 98 days
My Target Price : 4.21+0.15 = 4.36 (PE 21, EPS 0.1932, DPS 0.15)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.4
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit not much increase, good cash flow, strong cash, above moderate debt and increased, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 3.6, 3.5
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 6.38 (24 Sep 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group reported a profit after taxation for Q3 2010 is 104% higher than Q3 2009. The higher profit includes gain from the disposal of the Tesco Hypermarket in Setia Alam, an Investment Property of the Group

- The Group’s profit and revenue were principally derived from its property development activities carried out in the Klang Valley, Johor Bahru and Penang. Ongoing projects which contributed to the Group’s profit and revenue include Setia Alam and Setia Eco-Park at Shah Alam, Setia Walk at Pusat Bandar Puchong, Setia Sky Residences at Jalan Tun Razak, Bukit Indah, Setia Indah, Setia Tropika and Setia Eco Gardens in Johor Bahru, Setia Pearl Island and Setia Vista in Penang. Apart from property development, the Group’s construction and wood-based manufacturing activities also contributed to the earnings achieved

- The Group’s current quarter profit before taxation is 49.6% higher than the preceding quarter ended 30 April 2010. This includes profit recognized on the disposal of an Investment Property by the Group as mentioned above

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0439(after exclude RM48 million other income and used 27% VAT)*4*1.1 = 0.1932, estimate PE on current price 5.01 = 25.16(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1841 (10% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.06/20.53 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1724 (3% increase from 0.1674), estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.01/20.19 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.25/21.5 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.63/21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.56/22.81 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/16.19 (DPS 0.17)

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