KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 2040382381*3.86 = 7,875,875,990.66 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 3257525/2066772 = 1.58
P/BV : 3.86/1.58 = 2.443
Forecast P/E now : (3.86-0.12)/0.1632 = 22.92 (High)
ROE : 8.49% (Low)
DY : 0.12/3.86*100 = 3.11% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.3748+0.4639+0.4163+0.301)/4 = 0.389 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 4203173/1930221 = 2.1776 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (1196617+1079815)/2/(2455143/365) = 169 days
My Target Price : 3.43+0.12 = 3.55 (PE 21, EPS 0.1632, DPS 0.12
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.6
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ increasing, strong cash, above moderate debt and increased, navps decreased, MRT project
Technical Support Price : 3.8, 3.5
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.31 (29 Sep 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):

- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded 24.1% lower in revenue but 30.7% higher in profit before tax as compared to the preceding year comparative quarter. The increases in profit before tax for the current quarter and current year are due to higher contributions from all divisions

- For the current quarter under review, the Group’s profit before tax is 15.1% higher than the immediate preceding quarter’s profit before tax

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate PE on current price 3.86 = 22.92(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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