KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 1978731915*10.96 = 21,686,901,788.40 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 8398657/1978732 = 4.24
P/BV : 10.96/4.24 = 2.5849
Forecast P/E now : (10.96-0.5)/0.5064 = 20.66 (High)
ROE : 13.06% (Moderate)
DY : 0.5/10.96*100 = 4.56% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.3236+0.3385+0.3113)/3 = 0.3245 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 3254003/237418 = 13.71 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (340156+321617)/2/(3308929/365) = 36 days (Good)
My Target Price : 10.13+0.5 = 10.63 (PE 20, EPS 0.5064, DPS 0.5)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 10
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing, gas price in downtrend
Technical Support Price : 10.7
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 13.52 (30 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- Revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2010 was 11.1% higher than corresponding quarter last year. The increase was due to higher gas processing and gas transportation revenue

- Profit before tax for the quarter ended 30 June 2010 was 44.8% higher than corresponding quarter last year. The increase in profit was mainly due to higher revenue and lower cost of
revenue

- Revenue for the current quarter was an increase of 8.8% from the preceding quarter due to higher gas processing and gas transportation revenue

- Profit before tax for the current quarter was 84.9% higher than the preceding quarter mainly due to higher revenue and lower cost of revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5331*0.95 = 0.5064, estimate PE on current price 10.96 = 20.66(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.47/19.8 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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