KLCI Stock - AJIYA / 7609 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 69223821*2.02 = 139,832,118.42 (Small)
NTA per share : 194398/69224 = 2.81 (Increased)
P/BV : 2.02/2.81 = 0.7189
Forecast P/E now : (2.02-0.06)/0.3427 = 5.66 (Low)
ROE : 9.41% (Low)
DY : 0.06/2.02*100 = 2.97% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0776+1.1546+1.1514)/3 = 1.1279 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 189707/52927 = 3.5843 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (91376+86550)/2/(328728/365) = 98 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 1.88+0.06 = 1.94 (PE 6.2, EPS 0.304, DPS 0.06)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.9
My Comment : Revenue still high but profit decreasing, good cash flow, low debt but slightly increased, navps increasing, expanded operation to Thailand
Technical Support Price : 1.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.74 (20 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- For the quarter under review, the Group achieved a 3% higher turnover compared to preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase was mainly due to better market sentiment

- The Group recorded a 11.5% decrease in profit before tax for the current quarter compared to immediate preceding quarter. The decrease was due to lower turnover and lower profit margin of certain products for the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.08(average eps)*4*0.95 = 0.304, estimate PE on current price 2.05 = 6.55(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.19/5.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0816*4 = 0.3264+0.0163 = 0.3427 (5% grow from 0.3264 due to recovery from previous weak market), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.16/4.99 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.312(2% drop from 0.3184), estimate PE on current price 2.14 = 6.67(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.39/5.18 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.23, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.22 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/4.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.69/3.65 (DPS 0.06)

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