KLCI Stock - PPB / 4065 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 1185499882*18.06 = 21,410,127,868.92 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (14146878-72444-1774-6646)/1185500 = 11.87
P/BV : 18.06/11.87 = 1.5215
Forecast P/E now : (18.06-0.23)/1.1792 = 15.12 (High)
ROE : 16.77% (Moderate)
DY : 0.23/18.06*100 = 1.27% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1705+0.2232+0.2663)/3 = 0.22 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2230127/278884 = 7.9966 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (350121+446498)/2/(2515306/365) = 57 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increased but profit still low, good cash flow, very low debt, navps same, wheat price increasing, entered bakery industry
Technical Support Price : 17
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- Group revenue for the 6 months ended 30 June 2010 was about 4% higher than the same period last year. The increase was mainly due to higher revenue achieved by the film exhibition and distribution division, and the chemicals trading and manufacturing division for the period under review

- Group profit before tax for continuing operations was marginally higher than that of the corresponding period last year. The flour and feed milling division contributed higher profits due to increase in sales volume and better margins, whilst film exhibition and distribution also registered higher profits arising mainly from increased admissions. However the profit contribution for the period from our associate Wilmar International Limited ("Wilmar") was lower

- Group profit before tax for continuing operations for the quarter under review was 8% higher compared with the preceding quarter. Profit contribution from the Other Operations increased mainly from dividend income, interest income and gains on disposal of properties whilst Wilmar registered a lower profit for the current quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.268*4*1.1 = 1.1792, estimate PE on current price 18.06 = 15.12 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.2268+0.0127 = 1.2395 (adjustment from 0.242-0.2293, 0.242 represent eps excluded disposal of assets), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.61/11.54 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.4/12.48 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)

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