KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 993454000*10.94 = 10,868,386,760 (Very Large)
NTA per share : 4758215/993454 = 4.79
P/BV : 10.94/4.79 = 2.2839
Forecast P/E now : (10.94-0.6)/0.7958 = 12.99 (High)
ROE : 15.88% (Moderate)
DY : 0.6/10.94*100 = 5.48% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (2.8824+3.0677+2.3267)/3 = 2.7589 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 3533806/2467405 = 1.4322 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1786335+1772348)/2/(21363648/365) = 30 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 9.55+0.6 = 10.15 (PE 12, EPS 0.7958, DPS 0.6)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 10
My Comment : Revenue increasing but profit decreasing good cash flow, above moderate debt but decreased, navps increasing, from past 1 year crude oil price chart showed downtrend
Technical Support Price : 10
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- Group revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2010 was increased of 14.2% compared to the corresponding quarter last year. The increase was a result of higher product average selling prices and higher sales volume

- Group PBT for the quarter ended 30 June 2010 was decreased of 2.4% from the corresponding period last year mainly due to lower gross profit

- The Group revenue for the current quarter was increased of 0.7% from preceding quarter. The increase was due to higher average product selling prices

- Group PBT for the current quarter was increased of 19.9% compared to the preceding quarter, mainly due to lower operating expenditures

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate PE on current price 10.94 = 12.99(DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

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