KLCI Stock - GTRONIC / 7022 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 266046940*1.22 = 324,577,266.80 (Small)
NTA per share : 240509/265226 = 0.91 (Increased)
P/BV : 1.22/0.91 = 1.3407
Forecast P/E now : (1.22-0.0965)/0.1304 = 8.62 (Moderate)
ROE : 11.96% (Moderate)
DY : 0.0965/1.22*100 = 7.91% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.8286+0.768+1.2878+1.017)/4 = 0.9754 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 209614/80841 = 2.5929 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (111075+38413)/2/(270745/365) = 100 days
My Target Price : 1.304+0.096 = 1.4(PE 10, EPS 0.1304, DPS 0.0965)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit growing, good cash flow, strong cash, below moderate debt but increasing, navps slightly increasing, receivables increasing
Technical Support Price : 1
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group’s turnover and net profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 increased significantly by 35% and 126% respectively as compared to the same period last year mainly due to higher volume loadings from all the Group’s customers as a result of recovery of the global economy. The net profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2009 was partly affected by impairment loss due to the shutdown of the Group’s China operations

- Turnover for the quarter ended 30 September 2010 was an increase of 10.6% as compared to the preceding quarter while the net profit of the Group increased by 14.5%. The increase in turnover and net profit is mainly due to continuous higher volume loadings from all the Group’s key customers

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304, estimate PE on current price 1.22 = 8.62(DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.026*4 = 0.104(0.026 is average of latest recent quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.94/8.94 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0904+0.0007+(0.0911*0.05) = 0.0957(adjustment from 0.0233-0.0226 and 5% grow adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.61/12.85 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.36/9.07 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)

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