KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 131581900*4.8 = 631,593,120 (Medium)
NTA per share : (243974-6992)/131582 = 1.8
P/BV : 4.8/1.8 = 2.6667
Forecast P/E now : (4.8-0.15)/0.4639 = 10.02 (High)
ROE : 24.9% (High)
DY : 0.15/4.8*100 = 3.13% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.5109+1.641+1.4502+1.6204)/4 = 1.5556 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 253850/91622 = 2.7706 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (31952+33064)/2/(522949/365) = 22 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.64+0.15 = 4.79 (PE 10, EPS 0.4639, DPS 0.15)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.5
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, strong cash, below moderate debt, navps slightly increasing, number of stores increasing
Technical Support Price : 4.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.65 (07 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):

- Revenues for the quarter under review were up 15.6% from the amounts achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter. Gross margins earned during the quarter were also higher at 51.9% (against 46.9% in the same quarter last year), and coupled with the increased revenues. Profit before taxation also rose in tandem, a hefty year-on-year increase of 183.8%

- On a 12-month basis, the Group had managed to achieve an overall increase of 9.6% in revenues, and a 27.4% increase in Profit Before Taxation when compared to those of the previous financial year. The bigger relative increase in the Profit Before Taxation had come about because during the current year, operating expenses had grown less quickly than revenues; the healthy gross margin of 50% also contributed to the robust growth in the bottom line

- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had declined by 18%. This large decline was expected considering that the previous quarter had been strongly boosted by an extended Chinese New Year season. The large reduction in revenues experienced in the quarter under review had also caused a reduced gross profit amount, which subsequently resulted in the Profit Before Taxation for the quarter considered being 21.7% less than that earned in the previous quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate PE on current price 4.8 = 10.02(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)