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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - DRBHCOM / 1619 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,369,115,735 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.26-0.045)/0.1982 = 11.18 (High)
Target Price1.98+0.045 = 2.03 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1982, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 24.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.6%, eps decreased 34.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 72.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, profit margin decreasing, automotive division strong growing
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price1.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price3.8 (2011-04-25)
RHB Target Price3.05 (2011-06-03)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.70%
Dividend Yield2.65%
Profit Margin6.74%
Tax Rate32.84%
Asset Turnover0.2428
Net Asset Value Per Share2.58
Net Tangible Asset per share2.46
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.91
Cash Per Share5.45
Liquidity Current Ratio0.73
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6258
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5517
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio4.396
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7812
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-75.8%
Days to sell the inventory111
Days to collect the receivables76
Days to pay the payables1038

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower profit due to one-off exceptional items gain on preceding year corresponding quarter, if these items are excluded, the profits from operational activities have increased by 41%

- Lower pbt than preceding quarter mainly due to impairment charges on certain property, plant and equipment based on market value assessment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.057+0.0374)*2*1.05 = 0.1982, estimate PE on current price 2.26 = 11.18(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.057*4*0.8 = 0.1824, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.02 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0684*4*0.8 = 0.2189, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/5.57 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1873*0.95 = 0.1779, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.59/5.79 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0493*4*0.95 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.09/5.02 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.42/5.37 (DPS 0.04)

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