KLCI Stock - HARTA / 5168 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,025,985,012 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(5.57-0.15)/0.604 = 8.97 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.64+0.15 = 6.79 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.604, DPS 0.15)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 2.3% and is continuing increasing all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.8%), eps increased 6.4% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and als higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.6%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, better working capital, all accounting periods are good, USD dollor against Ringgit weakening
First Support Price	5.4
Second Support Price	4.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	8.25 (2011-04-05)
Maybank Target Price	6.8 (2011-04-08)
MIDF Target Price	6.28 (2011-05-11)
OSK Target Price	7.4 (2011-05-11)
RHB Target Price	6.19 (2011-05-11)
Kenanga Target Price	6.83 (2011-05-16)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	38.44%
Dividend Yield	2.69%
Profit Margin	34.43%
Tax Rate	20.90%
Asset Turnover	1.1641
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.36
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.36
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.19
Cash Per Share	0.32
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.7463
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.8826
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.5517
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2764
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2164
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	28.2%
Days to sell the inventory	48
Days to collect the receivables	48
Days to pay the payables	39

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):
- The significant achievement in revenue and profit before tax is in line with the Group’s continuous expansion in production capacity, increase in demand, effective cost control and improvement in production processes

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1438*4*1.05 = 0.604, estimate PE on current price 5.57 = 8.97(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1351*4*1.1 = 0.5944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.99/8.77 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1293*4*1.1 = 0.5689, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.86/8.28 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1708*4*1.05 = 0.7174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/8.24 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1915*4 = 0.766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.91/9.43 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1535*4 = 0.614, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1366*4 = 0.5464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.95/9.9 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1088*4 = 0.4352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.59/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.55/6.01 (DPS 0.12)

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