KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,949,706,157 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.55-0.2)/0.221 = 15.16 (High)
Target Price	2.65+0.2 = 2.85 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.221, DPS 0.2)
Decision	Not interested unless profit exclude other income increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 42.8% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.7%, eps increased 202.6%(due to high other income) and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 170.4%, cash generated from operating and financing also not enough to cover investing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good
First Support Price	3.4
Second Support Price	3.16
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price	3.75 (2011-02-17)
Maybank Target Price	3.4 (2011-02-28)
RHB Target Price	4 (2011-02-28)
TA Target Price	4.52 (2011-02-28)
CIMB Target Price	4.5 (2011-03-03)
AMMB Target Price	5.1 (2011-03-04)
JF Apex Target Price	4.48 (2011-05-24)
MIDF Target Price	4 (2011-05-26)
OSK Target Price	3.89 (2011-05-26)
Affin Target Price	3.3 (2011-06-03)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	2.82%
Dividend Yield	5.63%
Profit Margin	3.09%
Tax Rate	23.76%
Asset Turnover	1.1553
Net Asset Value Per Share	9.84
Net Tangible Asset per share	8.19
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.41
Cash Per Share	2.33
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7239
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1956
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5578
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4388
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.305
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.5%
Days to sell the inventory	48
Days to collect the receivables	59
Days to pay the payables	70

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- High profit is from R&D grant income under the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Program, higher sales of PROTON cars and to a lesser extent

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2326*0.95 = 0.221, estimate PE on current price 3.55 = 14.83(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.16 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

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