KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	723,700,450 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.1-0.04)/0.1241 = 8.54 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.37+0.04 = 1.41 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.1241, DPS 0.04)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 4.3% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.1%, eps increased 68.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.6%, cash generated from operating is around for financing expenses only hence increased loan for other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, inventory and payables ratio still high
First Support Price	1.08
Second Support Price	1.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	0.95 (2010-11-30)
ECM Target Price	1.07 (2010-12-28)
BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	25.67%
Dividend Yield	10.45%
Profit Margin	22.54%
Tax Rate	26.89%
Asset Turnover	1.2589
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.42
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.41
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.63
Cash Per Share	0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5376
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2983
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.048
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5487
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3543
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.7%
Days to sell the inventory	207
Days to collect the receivables	22
Days to pay the payables	114

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Increase in revenues was driven primarily by our Brands Outlet operations, the much improved Profit before Taxation was the result of a substantial rise in the gross profit margins earned. This improvement in the gross margins earned was mainly attributable to the higher overall sell-through rates achieved by most of the merchandise sold during the quarter concerned

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate PE on current price 1.1 = 8.54(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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