KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,463,757,567 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.35-0.15)/0.194 = 21.65 (High)
Target Price	3.49+0.15 = 3.64 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.194, DPS 0.15)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 1% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.4%, eps decreased 8.5% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.8%, cash generated from operating and financing activities not enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting periods are good, hospital increasing, previous quarter high profit partial was from high other income
First Support Price	4.0
Second Support Price	3.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	4.32 (2011-01-19)
MIDF Target Price	4.6 (2011-04-14)
OSK Target Price	5.37 (2011-05-23)
RHB Target Price	4.94 (2011-05-23)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	14.04%
Dividend Yield	3.25%
Profit Margin	9.49%
Tax Rate	24.64%
Asset Turnover	1.0165
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.32
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.82
Cash Per Share	0.29
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.8973
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.8339
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.2446
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0222
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.476
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-4.3%
Days to sell the inventory	10
Days to collect the receivables	64
Days to pay the payables	76

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt due to a one-off reversal of provision for impairment in associates, amounting to RM6.5 million, being included in the profit before taxation in the preceding quarter of RM44.2 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0462*4*1.05 = 0.194, estimate PE on current price 4.35 = 21.65(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.73/15.99 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.18/15.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0506*4*1.1 = 0.2226, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/13.7 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/13.02 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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