KLCI Stock - MRCB / 1651 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,991,453,506 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.16-0.015)/0.0811 = 26.45 (High)
Target Price	1.70+0.015 = 1.72 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.0811, DPS 0.015)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue decreased 48.9% and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.8%, eps decreased 48.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.7%, no cash generate from operating and cash generated from borrowings also not enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, better receivables and payables ratio but still at high level now
First Support Price	2.15
Second Support Price	2.0
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

RHB Target Price	2.65 (2011-01-10)
CIMB Target Price	3 (2011-02-10)
AMMB Target Price	2.4 (2011-04-08)
HwangDBS Target Price	3.15 (2011-04-08)
Kenanga Target Price	2.59 (2011-04-08)
MIDF Target Price	2.46 (2011-05-27)
OSK Target Price	2.58 (2011-05-27)
UOB Target Price	3.02 (2011-05-27)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	6.04%
Dividend Yield	0.69%
Profit Margin	10.85%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.2406
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.94
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.9
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.4
Cash Per Share	0.57
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.165
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.733
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8467
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.4614
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7054
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	99.3%
Days to sell the inventory	147
Days to collect the receivables	274
Days to pay the payables	285

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue recorded in the current quarter was contributed by the Group’s revenue recognition of ongoing property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral and the progressive works of the construction and engineering activities

- The higher profit for the current quarter was mainly contributed by recognition of progress profit of the ongoing engineering and construction activities and property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0156*4*1.3 = 0.0811, estimate PE on current price 2.16 = 23.7(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1067579*1.3*0.09/1380582 = 0.0905(profit margin per 9%, revenue yearly increase rate 30%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.02/21.49 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0188*4*1.1 = 0.0827(profit margin 8%, revenue increase rate 20%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.02/22.61 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.49/17.26 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)

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