KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	328,355,613 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.43-0.12)/0.3538 = 6.53 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.48+0.12 = 2.60 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.3538, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue decreased 9.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 23.5%, eps decreased 2% and is third consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.9%, no cash generated from operating and over spent and cash generated from conversion of warrants to share also finish used, better liquidity ratio at moderate level now, improving gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting turnover periods still long time but offset by working capital increasing, manufacturing & trading division getting weaker result, property development and construction division recorded lower margin, first quarter construction usually record lower revenue, receivables increase rate higher than payables which will turn not enough cash
First Support Price	2.25
Second Support Price	1.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	16.47%
Dividend Yield	4.94%
Profit Margin	17.59%
Tax Rate	27.19%
Asset Turnover	0.6666
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.56
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.54
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.94
Cash Per Share	0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.4697
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.9935
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.0457
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5715
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3474
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	57.5%
Days to sell the inventory	269
Days to collect the receivables	131
Days to pay the payables	106

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0796+0.0812)*2*1.1 = 0.3538, estimate PE on current price 2.43 = 6.53(DPS 0.12), after split & bonus & free warrants then eps = 0.1049, price = 0.81, PE = 7.34(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.36(due to receivables increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/4.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.43/3.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.25/3 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

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