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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

KLCI Stock - MAYBANK / 1155 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)65,434,303,086 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(8.75-0.72)/0.6208 = 12.93 (Moderate)
Target Price9.93+0.72 = 10.65 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.6208, DPS 0.72)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 1.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.8%, eps decreased 0.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.6%, got cash generated from operating, investing and financing activities, allowances for losses on loans, advance & financing is low or else profit will be more lower, most segments revenue slow down, rising inflationary pressure, OPR increased 25 points
First Support Price8.6
Second Support Price8.2
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
AMMB Target Price10.4 (2011-04-22)
UOB Target Price10.3 (2011-05-10)
MIDF Target Price10.4 (2011-05-12)
CIMB Target Price10.3 (2011-05-13)
ECM Target Price10 (2011-05-13)
HLG Target Price10.48 (2011-05-13)
Kenanga Target Price10.6 (2011-05-13)
OSK Target Price10.07 (2011-05-13)
RHB Target Price10.5 (2011-05-13)
TA Target Price10.9 (2011-05-13)
HwangDBS Target Price10.8 (2011-05-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.92%
Dividend Yield8.23%
Profit Margin30.72%
Tax Rate24.71%
Asset Turnover0.0527
Net Asset Value Per Share4.13
Net Tangible Asset per share3.54
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.47
Cash Per Share6.1
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1104
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.906
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1419
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio11.704
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.9193
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale174.3%
Days to sell the inventory3714
Days to collect the receivables4260
Days to pay the payables17168

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower net interest income due to seasonal factor and narrowing net interest margin across all
markets

- Lower non-interest income mainly attributable to lower gain on sale of securities and foreign exchange profits

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1552*4 = 0.6208, estimate PE on current price 8.75 = 12.93(DPS 0.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1563*4*1.05 = 0.6565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.01/11.87 (DPS 0.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1447*4*1.05 = 0.6077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/12.87 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5394*1.1 = 0.5933, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.88/12.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1456*4 = 0.5824, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.59 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1404*4 = 0.5616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.48/11.75 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.1 (DPS 0.08)

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