KLCI Stock - AIRPORT / 5014 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	6,160,000,000 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(5.6-0.2247)/0.3869 = 13.89 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.96+0.2247 = 7.19 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.3869, DPS 0.2247)
Decision	BUY if MACD moving back to bullish trend
Comment	Revenue increased 28.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2%, eps increased 13.6% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.8%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but not for investing expenses hence spent 49.5% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from moderate to low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio increased at historical high, still high operation profit margin, most segment business growth, most monthly movements data decreasing
First Support Price	5.55
Second Support Price	5.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	11.31%
Dividend Yield	4.01%
Gross Profit Margin	92.44%
Operating Profit Margin	75.93%
Net Profit Margin	19.33%
Tax Rate	24.10%
Asset Turnover	0.3709
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.22
Net Tangible Asset per share	-1.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	-5.4
Cash Per Share	0.71
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8688
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7794
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8857
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.094
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5225
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	27.7%
Days to sell the inventory	453
Days to collect the receivables	104
Days to pay the payables	4849

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	5.723 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	5.717 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	5.791 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	5.987 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.025007 ( 0.005032 )
Signal (9)	-0.009665 ( 0.003836 )
MACD Histogram	0.015342 (Bearish trend 7 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly attributed to the effects of adopting IC 12 which resulted in recognition of construction revenue in relation to the construction of klia2 and expansion of Penang International Airport, others airport operations, aeronautical, retail, agriculture, hotel, passenger service charges with new rates also contributed to the increase however offset by lower MARCS PSC as the Group is no longer entitled to claim for MARCS PSC upon the implementation of the new rates

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3546869*0.12/1100000 = 0.3869, estimate highest/lowest PE on current price 5.6 = 13.89(DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0745+0.0983)*2 = 0.3456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.1/15.03 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.65/14.44 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0801*4*1.1 = 0.3524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.57/17.26 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0764*4*1.1 = 0.3362(deduct 16 million other income for adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.64/17.31 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.49/21.41 (DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)

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