KLCI Stock - KNM / 7164 - 2011 Quarter 4

KNM GROUP BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher job recognition on stronger order intake and backlog. The loss after tax and minority interest and lower EBITDA in this period was mainly due to one off provision for foreseeable losses and credit impairments that were mainly made in Q3

- Asia & Oceanic Segment revenue improved mainly attributed to expansion of goods and services coverage into EPC projects, more job orders, and higher progress recognition. Profitability in 2011 however has been hampered by provisions for foreseeable losses and credit impairment

- Europe Segment got lower profit due to provision for foreseeable losses however, the segment has contributed to higher revenue on higher order intake mainly from outside EU

- Americas Segment recorded low order intakes and under utilized capacity in 2011. This is partly attributed to the slowdown of activities in the Canada oilsand projects, and the difficult business environment in Latin America

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to loss
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0889*0.9 = 0.08, estimate PE on current price 0.99 = 12.12(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0194+0.021)*2*1.1 = 0.0889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/12.26 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0655*2*1.1 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.12/15.68 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0089*4*1.2 = 0.0427(use VAT 15%, include incoming new contract), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/10.54
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)

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