KLCI Stock - PPB / 4065 - 2011 Quarter 4

PPB GROUP BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue from grains trading, flour and feed milling segment mainly due to the larger scale in grains trading but lower pbt due to lower margins as a result of higher raw material costs. Higher wheat costs coupled with intense local competition had affected the financial performance of the Group's flourmills. The Indonesian flourmill registered lower results despite an increase in flour sales because of a foreign exchange translation loss

- Lower revenue from marketing, distribution and manufacturing of consumer products segment than FY10Q4 due to marginally lower but higher pbt was due to better profit margins

- Higher revenue from film exhibition and distribution segment due to higher cinema collections but lower pbt due to higher film rental rates and staff costs for the cinema operations, film acquisition costs and one-off corporate expenditures

- Lower revenue and pbt from environmental engineering, waste management and utilities segment than FY10Q4 mainly due to accelerated progress in the stages of completion in several environmental engineering projects during the previous period, where revenue had been progressively recognised. In 4Q2011, such projects have mostly been completed or were near completion

- Lower revenue and pbt from property investment and development segment due to lower property sales as there were no new projects launched and got a gain on disposal of investment properties of RM22 million in FY2010

- Higher revenue from livestock farming segment than FY10Q4 due to better day-old chicks prices

- Loss from investments in equities mainly due to a fair value adjustments

- Lower profits from the shipping division as a result of lower charter hire rates and loss of profit contribution from the disposed engineering services subsidiary

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 14565126*0.062/1185500 = 0.7617, estimate PE on current price 17.28 = 22.38(DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1935*4 = 0.774, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23/20.28 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2332*4*0.95 = 0.8862, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/16.79 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2237*4*0.95 = 0.8501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.88/18.88 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2429*4*1.05 = 1.0202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.25/15.57 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.268*4*1.1 = 1.1792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.73/12.56 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.2268+0.0127 = 1.2395 (adjustment from 0.242-0.2293, 0.242 represent eps excluded disposal of assets), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.61/11.54 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.4/12.48 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)

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