KLCI Stock - GTRONIC / 7022 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	292,023,251 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.09-0.045)/0.0925 = 11.30 (High)
Target Price	0.83+0.045 = 0.88 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.0925, DPS 0.045)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD can strongly sustain in bullish trend or wait until moving up from very bearish trend
Comment	Revenue decreased 18.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.1%, eps decreased 35.2% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.9%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, gross profit margin maintaining high, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, debt ratio near to historical low, all accounting ratio are good, inventory increased but still consider low
First Support Price	1.0
Second Support Price	0.9
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

MIDF Target Price

1.05 (2012-02-23)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	10.83%
Dividend Yield	5.96%
Gross Profit Margin	22.00%
Operating Profit Margin	8.71%
Net Profit Margin	9.84%
Tax Rate	11.90%
Asset Turnover	0.8909
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.92
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.92
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.04
Cash Per Share	0.37
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.2971
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.0322
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.1733
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2072
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1716
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	39.5%
Days to sell the inventory	21
Days to collect the receivables	54
Days to pay the payables	66

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.002 (Uptrend 8 days)
SMA 50	0.965 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.905 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.894 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.036036 ( 0.001574 )
Signal (9)	0.024674 ( 0.002841 )
MACD Histogram	0.011362 (Bullish trend 8 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly attributed to a weaker overall demand and the lower economy of scale achieved. In addition, an impairment charge of RM1.5 million was incurred on certain plant and machineries of which are expected to go end of life by Quarter 2,2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 246430*0.1/266508 = 0.0925, estimate PE on current price 1.09 = 11.3(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.029*4*1.05 = 0.1218, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.09/6.03 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0282*3*1.05+0.0241*1.05 = 0.1141, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/6.88 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1139*1.1 = 0.1253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.53/7.05 (DPS 0.0965)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304(no decrease due to high tax expenses), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/6.85 (DPS 0.0965)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0326*4 = 0.1304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.97/7.67 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.026*4 = 0.104(0.026 is average of latest recent quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.94/8.94 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0904+0.0007+(0.0911*0.05) = 0.0957(adjustment from 0.0233-0.0226 and 5% grow adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.61/12.85 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.36/9.07 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)

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