KLCI Stock - BJTOTO / 1562 - 2012 Quarter 3

BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD


My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly attributed to the traditionally high sales during the Chinese Lunar New Year festive season coupled with higher number of draws

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 527397*0.78/1336687 = 0.3078, estimate PE on current price 4.4 = 13.42(DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.0689+0.079)*2*1.05 = 0.3106, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/12.59 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0689+0.0779)*2 = 0.2936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/13.15 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0779*4 = 0.3116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/12.2 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.53/13.76 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)

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