KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,843,390,615 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.92-0.17)/0.347 = 10.81 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.16+0.17 = 4.33 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.347, DPS 0.17)
Decision	BUY if stock price stay at Bolinger upper band and got stronger buying volume than selling or when MACD moving up from very low point
Comment	Revenue decreased 0.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.1%, eps increased 9.7% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 55.6%, cash generated from operating not even enough to cover dividend expenses hence spent 25.2% of Group cash to cover other expenses , weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, debt ratio still at very good level now, all accounting ratio are good, all division business still good performance
First Support Price	3.75
Second Support Price	3.55
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.74%
Dividend Yield	19.39%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	20.54%
Net Profit Margin	21.51%
Tax Rate	12.84%
Asset Turnover	0.4803
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.47
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.02
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.29
Cash Per Share	1.39
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.9159
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.8766
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.8276
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1842
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1555
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	72.7%
Days to sell the inventory	4
Days to collect the receivables	91
Days to pay the payables	89

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	3.88 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 50	3.891 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	3.828 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.673 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.007165 ( 0.001542 )
Signal (9)	-0.000704 ( 0.001967 )
MACD Histogram	0.007869 (Bullish trend 6 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 was from all division. The increase in Logistics division was in line with the new business activities undertaken by the company from warehousing, trucking and project logistics. The improved revenue was also contributed by haulage sector, where the company had enhanced capacity of its fleet strength. In addition, the freight forwarding activities also showed an increase in revenue from oil and gas sector

- Higher pbt from Ports division mainly due to the effects of adopting IC 12 Interpretation and also increases in revenue

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1631713*0.1/470253 = 0.347, estimate PE on current price 3.92 = 10.81(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0865+0.0499)*2*1.05 = 0.2864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.72/11.77 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/8.83 (DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/11.47 (DPS 0.69)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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