KLCI Stock - BHIC / 8133 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	757,795,722 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.05-0.06)/0.0957 = 31.24 (High)
Target Price	0.96+0.06 = 1.02 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0957, DPS 0.06)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price got uptrend breakthrough and got higher support line
Comment	Revenue increased 4.4% and was third consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, eps increased 254.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.2%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio slightly lower but still near to historical high, receivables decreasing can indicate some project end, higher payables but temporary offset by higher cash
First Support Price	3.0
Second Support Price	2.7
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

HwangDBS Target Price	5.15 (2011-08-15)
AMMB Target Price	4.3 (2011-11-16)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	2.69%
Dividend Yield	1.97%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	-2.49%
Net Profit Margin	-9.18%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.4697
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.72
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.16
Cash Per Share	1.17
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.1272
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0622
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4592
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.5992
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5895
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	14.8%
Days to sell the inventory	28
Days to collect the receivables	249
Days to pay the payables	208

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	3.291 (Downtrend 38 days)
SMA 50	3.484 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	3.368 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.216 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.124006 ( 0.002419 )
Signal (9)	-0.101889 ( 0.005529 )
MACD Histogram	0.022117 (Bearish trend 64 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Loss before tax mainly attributed to lower revenue recognised for the Group’s heavy engineering segment, specifically relating to maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) jobs (but higher than FY11Q3) which form the bulk of the subsidiaries’ activities, commercial shipbuilding losses, higher finance charges and lower share of profit from associates. On the other hand, the manufacturing segment contributed satisfactorily to the enlarged Group although this was offset by the losses produced by the chartering segment for its first year results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 475517*0.05/248458 = 0.0957(very low operating profit margin, estimate PE on current price 3.05 = 31.24(DPS 0.06)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced, but if based on ROE of 2.14% per quarter then eps = 0.0405*4 = 0.162, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.06/15.74 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0405*4 = 0.162, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.15/14.41 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0405+0.046)*2*1.1 = 0.1903, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.97/16.5 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3098*1.2 = 0.3718, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.57/10.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0636*1.1*4 = 0.2798 (10% increase due to many new contract received), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.69/14.44 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.13/15.58 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)

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