KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,515,982,346 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.20

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(2.76-0.075)/0.4847 = 5.54 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.88+0.075 = 3.95 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.4847, DPS 0.075)
Decision	BUY if MACD move up with very strong buy volume than sell
Comment	Revenue increased 27.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 87%, eps increased 0.3% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.4%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but still spent 39.3% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, operating profit margin decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, higher debt ratio but still far from historical high, receivables increasing but still acceptable due to higher revenue, manufacturing and trading division weaken but primary profit contribution division - construction still growth
First Support Price	2.6
Second Support Price	2.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	3.45 (2012-03-05)
HLG Target Price	4.61 (2012-03-05)
Jupiter Target Price	3.22 (2012-03-07)
OSK Target Price	3.72 (2012-03-27)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	22.93%
Dividend Yield	2.90%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	18.85%
Net Profit Margin	19.15%
Tax Rate	0.12%
Asset Turnover	0.9552
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.98
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.98
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.45
Cash Per Share	0.32
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2481
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.0825
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3848
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4255
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2854
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.3%
Days to sell the inventory	23
Days to collect the receivables	185
Days to pay the payables	134

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	2.924 (Downtrend 8 days)
SMA 50	2.923 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.6 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.637 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.035914 ( 0.006363 )
Signal (9)	-0.009441 ( 0.006618 )
MACD Histogram	0.026473 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to the delivery of major equipment components of the Equipment Procurement contract for the 4 x 360MW coal-fired power plant at Chhattisgarh, India and gain on disposal of quarry rights in the quarrying business however pbt was affected by the generally lower profit margin of construction activities in the current year, currency translation losses arising from the weaker Ringgit Malaysia (RM) against US Dollar (USD), employee benefits expenses under ESOS and the sharing of the pre-operational expenses in the associated company, RKM Powergen Pte Ltd and volatility of the construction materials prices

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1007725*0.23/478191 = 0.4847, estimate PE on current price 2.76 = 5.54(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 63001*4*0.83/548326 = 0.3815, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.85/5.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1477+0.1011)*2*0.75 = 0.3732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.18/4.53 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2407*2 = 0.4814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.74/6.54 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5096*1.05 = 0.5351, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.62/8.16 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/9.05 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

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