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Friday, April 27, 2012

KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2011 Quarter 4

TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD



Company Description
Telekom Malaysia Berhad (TM) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in the establishment, maintenance and provision of telecommunications and related services. TM operates in four segments: retail business, wholesale business, global business and shared services/others. Its retail business focuses on providing a range of solutions and building customer relationships in the consumer, small and medium enterprise (SME), enterprise and government. Its wholesale business offers a comprehensive range of unparalleled telecommunications facilities and services to licensed network operators, such as network facilities providers (NFP), network service providers (NSP) and applications service providers (ASP) for mobile, fixed line, worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX), broadband and Internet. Its global business provides voice, Internet, bandwidth and data services to demands from global carriers and enterprise customers. In October 2007, it acquired Tekad Mercu Berhad and Rebung Utama Sdn Bhd. In December 2007, the Company dissolved its subsidiaries, Telesafe Sdn Bhd, Mobitel Sdn Bhd and Telekom Payphone Sdn Bhd. In March 2008, the Company acquired TM ESOS Management Sdn Bhd.

Company Info
Listing Date1990-11-07
Market Capital (Capital Size)19,282,196,672 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryTelecommunication
Sub IndustryNetwork Services
Websitehttp://www.tm.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.39-0.196)/0.1994 = 26.05 (High)
Target Price4.39+0.196 = 4.58 (PE 22.0, EPS 0.1994, DPS 0.196)
DecisionNot interested unless profit increase significant from repeatable income
Comment
Revenue increased 5.4% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, eps increased 97.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 48.9%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses and got borrowing to cover the rest of expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, debt ratio near to historical high, higher payables repayment period but still acceptable due to higher revenue, most division growth, benefit from weakened of USD against RM from Jan 12 to March 12 from borrowing cost
First Support Price5.3
Second Support Price5.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price4.23 (2011-02-28)
RHB Target Price5.85 (2012-01-06)
HLG Target Price5.16 (2012-02-27)
HwangDBS Target Price5.3 (2012-02-27)
Maybank Target Price5.52 (2012-02-28)
AMMB Target Price5.5 (2012-03-27)
ECM Target Price4.78 (2012-03-27)
MIDF Target Price5.4 (2012-03-27)
Kenanga Target Price5.52 (2012-03-28)
Jupiter Target Price5.62 (2012-04-02)
CIMB Target Price5.76 (2012-04-04)
OSK Target Price5.7 (2012-04-09)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.70%
Dividend Yield3.64%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin10.86%
Net Profit Margin9.38%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4282
Net Asset Value Per Share1.95
Net Tangible Asset per share1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.73
Cash Per Share1.3
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6544
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6026
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1111
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0434
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6663
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale29.9%
Days to sell the inventory10
Days to collect the receivables78
Days to pay the payables189

Technical Analysis
SMA 205.389 (Uptrend 50 days)
SMA 505.243 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.983 (Uptrend)
SMA 2004.495 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.047436 ( 0.003674 )
Signal (9)0.059551 ( 0.003029 )
MACD Histogram0.012115 (Bearish trend 9 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to growth from most of the segment business

- Lower pbt than FY10Q4 largely attributed to lower other gains from the disposal of investments of RM5.5 million in the current quarter as compared to RM215.4 million in the corresponding quarter in 2010 (FY11Q3: RM283.5 million gain)

- Higher pat largely due to the recognition of deferred tax income on unutilised tax incentives

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 7131700*0.1/3577400 = 0.1994(excluded disposal and tax income ~2.5% ROE), estimate PE on current price 5.39 = 26.05(DPS 0.196)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0356*4*1.1 = 0.1566(excluded disposal of Axiata shares of RM283.5 million and reduction of possible more foreign exchange loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.57/25.68 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0812*2*1.05 = 0.1705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.87/21.71 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0457*4*1.05 = 0.1919, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.42/18.18 (DPS 0.261)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0543*4 = 0.2172(exclude one time income and use average foreign exchange gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.17/14.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4*0.95 = 0.1814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/16.81 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0606(average of recent 4Q eps)*4 = 0.2424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.9/12.46 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4 = 0.1916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/14.87 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)

TM latest news (English)

TM latest news (Chinese)


Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-02-2420114N/AN/A0.0988.39%16.70%24472009150700229600100120059830011910000.16720.3330213718001424010016290071317003030700133800096250034824001692700730200421260035774003576500181731922011-12-31-10.86%9.38%-0.428215.25491.951.862.731.31.65441.60261.11112.04340.666329.9%1078189
2011-11-24201135.224.25-4.65%9.11%232170067035003372007716003022005927000.08450.1657201140001361060015170065034001661800653600116040034834001008200152200333120035774003576200158836562011-09-30-21.97%14.52%6.32%0.4486-1.781.692.631.051.76661.69961.0242.14280.676731.1%1295174
2011-08-24201124.53.930.0981.87%4.26%223360043818002071004344001272002905000.03560.08121983000013014100142300681590093670068390010775003481600252800824700265690035774003575600149535322011-06-30-10.63%9.27%33.85%0.4487-1.871.782.351.01.67131.61150.95571.95010.656328.3%1196174
2011-05-25201114.183.75-2.02%2.02%214820021482002273002273001633001633000.04570.0457208784001280550016220080729004559004122002350034881004370067200355530035737003573700139374302011-03-31-10.78%10.58%23.14%0.4222-2.212.121.841.241.87521.8241.12571.61880.613339.1%10110185
2011-02-25201044.223.710.1315.10%15.35%23206008791000334800136020040070012065000.11230.339320780000129198001508007860200297340014469001534200349570015265007700348800035677003556100137356452010-12-31-17.59%14.43%-0.423111.34772.172.081.851.221.61761.5771.01371.67590.621730.1%897205
2010-11-26201033.993.32-5.75%10.56%2194600647040050590010254004385008058000.12320.22682062320012995900139600762730016628006737006871003496600989100302000379860035590003552200119226502010-09-30-18.07%23.05%11.72%0.4239-2.112.021.661.181.55691.51480.96751.73560.630227.6%999167
2010-08-23201023.583.310.131.66%4.90%215090042758001669005195001244003673000.03500.1033203224001282410013990074983009540004857003575003490900468300110800360170035591003557000127415782010-06-30-9.87%7.76%21.21%0.4256-2.071.981.811.121.5411.50380.95121.74280.63126.2%798156
2010-05-27201013.63.25-3.15%3.15%212490021249003526003526002429002429000.06830.06832060870012889800150500771890057710018220075003492700394900402400389510035550003555000115893002010-03-31-12.17%16.59%28.84%0.4186-2.132.041.61.21.55951.52560.97821.70310.625528.3%7101166
2010-02-22200943.563.080.132.39%9.02%227260086080002536009216001702006430000.04790.182119942500128125001425007130000305600025464004205900209370056024001396500349020035523003531400119002052009-12-31-11.56%11.16%29.69%0.431618.39841.981.891.771.071.39161.36670.85241.83360.642520.2%597170
2009-11-20200933.362.96-2.57%6.79%210100063354002178006680001791004728000.05050.13411946900012510200134400695880017361002905400398400021038004641500657500276130035488003525000107173762009-09-30-10.10%10.37%14.74%0.4537-1.941.851.630.861.91641.87890.94891.83320.642633.3%6123148
2009-08-21200923.312.990.13.82%4.22%212900042344003589004502002660002937000.07530.08361910190012138200127800696370012306003125500363630021011004356100719800282090035341003512100107790052009-06-30-13.76%16.86%23.91%0.4604-1.951.861.640.881.89911.8670.96411.77570.635432.8%5120147
2009-05-21200913.922.6-0.27%0.27%21054002105400913009130027700277000.00790.0079223727001206330013110010309400560800123650077900209310017973001875200396830034843003484300132403402009-03-31-14.08%4.34%60.35%0.3922-2.922.831.341.222.89742.861.31961.18520.539269.5%6206147
2009-02-24200844.03.380.14251.57%7.56%249780086749002526009787001648007919000.04750.228522533200120586002265001047460032512001896600192820026683001354600573600209470034692003465200115871282008-12-31-11.71%10.11%27.16%0.38514.61522.962.961.130.682.71152.6760.68351.17670.535168.5%6291158
2008-11-11200833.342.54-1.57%5.93%206200061771001381007261001658006271000.04770.181021721500111489001944001057260021695001599700349520040693005698002925400114390034735003463700114625502008-09-30-7.90%6.70%-0.5023-3.03.01.10.412.89552.850.48331.07430.513351.7%5236109
2008-08-19200823.682.980.122.49%7.23%210920041151003021008642002732007929000.07880.229021986900110238001860001096310015491001237000180000026659003121001487900117800034652003462200121282002008-06-30-11.67%14.32%1.82%0.6121-3.113.111.130.432.8392.79220.48411.02290.501442.2%519394
2008-05-22200813.583.08-2.45%2.45%200590020059005621005621005197005197000.15100.1510428843002170440089130021179900141810092940013264004073700488700837700323600034427003442700111543482008-03-31-5.81%28.02%-0.3653-5.893.730.871.060.92340.90070.40751.06980.5061-4.4%6103200
2008-02-262007411.63.20.222.87%12.34%473420017842900717400314260059250025477000.17220.743644221300235698008494002065150059322005863900586300461090068300518000409290034398003426200392137202007-12-31-13.72%15.15%10.50%0.403515.3315.783.63.171.320.89050.87450.40041.19030.533-7.0%590186
2007-11-072007312.710.10.653.09%9.18%460870013108700692600242520065850019552000.19150.571442417900211087008280002130920047790004691800989800463320087200902600373060034378003421700354093402007-09-30-18.81%15.03%10.05%0.413-5.993.932.621.21.05391.0320.51651.03060.49762.5%585180
2007-07-262007210.610.10.263.29%6.08%43188008500000885900173260070100012967000.20450.3791421496002083240087010021317200313820029578005031004621600180400322700429890034284003420600N/A2007-06-30-23.12%20.51%18.40%0.3062-5.983.92N/A1.361.12221.09570.60341.01880.49427.3%7108232
2007-05-0720071N/AN/A-2.78%2.78%418120041812008467008467005957005957000.17400.1740422594002080640084630021453000145400012096002865004615200244400530900514610034237003423700342370002007-03-31-21.33%20.25%23.99%0.2032-6.023.962.531.61.15141.12950.67621.00970.492314.3%10152338
2007-02-2320064N/AN/A0.32.85%9.97%440780016399200871500313320059080020688000.17360.608241843500210959008365002074760052338006397200501800633160011634001665200466640034024003401300331734002006-12-31-21.87%19.77%25.93%0.105316.02995.853.782.581.471.02061.00020.58921.05950.50424.0%18287685

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale investment (A-0)Available-for-sale receivables (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative financial assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Land held for property development (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Customer acquisition costs (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Financial assets at fair value through profit and loss (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Investment held for resale (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other long-term provisions (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deposits from customers (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20114104800111002170066200320900600108400--13613000199500-4213000-106100-2010021690041810019514002072700155960018900-6402700-81900544500---77003552100162900
201131147001150023800-319700500108900--1298490080700-3331600-107200240001630024550040190023428001919500180100015700-6212400-6700574400---62003074700151700
2011211470013400239004700319000-108900--1290690079800-26573009800103600-2230022370089940023426001783300169940032000-5754500-65100579500--400362003063700142300
2011111460014800246002000318000500108900--1283420084900-3555800-86300-2080020160085100026604001760300161650039200-5456200-79600579700---164003257600162200
2010411460014900867003600312300500107400--1311210089400-3488500-87100-2150017400083810023293001432100166420028000-5506000-43800580500---260003639200150800
20103857100306002000018100312600300112900--1243620093500-3799100---2830018240036220023699001380100173970013300-5532400-1320057960015800--8412002880600139600
20102973900331001100012100312900400155900--1227880090900-3602200--200263001556003550002314100128630016872006000-5656700-159005797001400--8720002718900139900
2010197240032900110007800313100400152200--1221540099400-3895600---28000147900344100238850011803001666400-155005664600-18900577300200--8834002883200150500
20094608200-10600-3134006001637001528007440012329900108900-3490700----11060029470022840009859001588700--5796900-14100575700---9166002934600142500
20093624000-7900-3137006001604001377006930011829700171300-2761800----12050028560029865008213001489300--6988200-38700575100---345002563100134400
20092477000-8300-3135006001640001377006950011664900170800-2821300----10300027330028980004590001435700--7033800-44400587600---419002535800127800
20091309700-8600-310100500164000137700672001160170046350020250003968800----12030027130029243003401001368600--7141500-44500587200---329002548500131100
20084496000-8900-1800-164300137800675001177210047240040250002095200----12330027760028913002602001362000--6965100-35000588800---349002812600226500
20083--15900-1900400165400905100678001146530047780040250001144400----1356002947003022200-1362500--6808700-31300589900---346002321900194400
20082--18000-2000400165400973500651001150010049400040250001178500----1446003167003103600-1391900--6543400-62200589200---401002397000186000
20081--171000-7452100123790016540013780039040024534200501700-3320400----2033003400004430100-2186900--1044320092100267000735500---15657006414000891300
20074--179400-7460900127690016540013890038700023983300511500-4171800988400---1811003781004398600595002313200--974720087200155200732600-1654500-21772006643200849400
20073--190800-7024800119490016510022050039150024294200522800-376100054500---1747003622004060900-2342000--1070560077900150400734800---10231006074900828000
20072--197300-7036300112420016840022050038720023796300532500-4316600----2050003545003810800-2367200--1064730077000191700737300---11510005660900870100
20071--109800-7043600103230016840022730036650023442600544200-5146200102800---1778003297003568200-2246100--1039730064600277100740200--2780015649005488400846300
20064--115600-7059100102810016840022670034620023680300557700-468040024000---1728003201003464100-2261900--1028280064600223700718900---18031005740900836500

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDepreciation & amortisationInvestment gain/lossDiscontinued operationGain/loss on dilution of equity investment in associateShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityForeign exchange (loss)/gain in finance costs
201142447200379900862004250016881001120035600100535900----14400
201132321700213008190030610015370001370031000500580700----122500
2011222336007010075900368001521500980034900500511400----11100
20111214820052600742002200014386001140031500-500000----38400
201042320600812009090026810016147001530033000200565700----15800
20103219460059300877001725001474800810036300100495800----160900
20102215090035400898003330014943007100262000477500----18100
20101212490010170096800262001435800800024500200456800----166600
20094227260075300865005550015704008100300000494900----47300
20093210100032100595003370014298006600195000492600----45500
2009221290008580099100663001371200710041700100531100----123200
20091210540055100111200303001319500850081000500519700----175500
2008424978006860096700231001698800192007660040052960001200--18200
20083206200014700960003700014025001300079400-533500888000--195700
20082210920055001026007470013969002340060200-540900-173300--74900
200812005900112001472004390014383005360021100-494900-452800--118800
200744734200753001539005260030651004960056800148001072400--0150400-
2007346087006960028550079100284950035500462002000971300--5350013400-
2007243188001630002099002420002581700219005270013400980500--1780013300-
20071418120020310095000868002275800479004820017001100400-----
200644407800226000130600110100252020054700529004001033700---15200-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtConsumer RetailSME RetailEnterprise RetailGovernment RetailWholesaleGlobalShared Services/OthersRetails
2011463860047350036750041740020090025630093000-
2011362960045740036970036060019130021480098300-
2011259940046730038730032730018750019230072500-
2011159150043990033710032810019030018190079400-
20104584900445700358100347000193500276200115200-
2010356040045030035440035250018460022120071200-
2010255700043930037170029660018760021570083000-
2010156150043690034650032040018970020170068200-
20094----193000273500652001740900
20093----175800214300697001641200
20092----216400180500754001656700
20091----200800216400672001621000
20084----178900297800658001955300
20083----164300180200620001655500
20082----164900203100639001677300
20081----181500154100595001610800
20074----130860014133002017001810600
20073----129590012705001826001859700
20072----117500011228001205001900500
20071----118560011296001349001731100
20064----121080011482002132001835600

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtConsumer RetailSME RetailEnterprise RetailGovernment RetailWholesaleGlobalShared Services/OthersRetails
2011426100957008300094400410007540086400-
20113166005250080800857003990066900900-
2011213000845008150070000318001600105800-
2011135000712007580097700387002650053200-
2010412400540005610079500729005320072800-
20103332005380092000132200481007750024300-
201021300463009580042600417004800037700-
2010110600952007270079200497004270015600-
20094----19003450038000395200
20093----477001425001130065700
20092----988001590022500182300
20091----408007020010200240600
20084----23200130039600340700
20083----27200320018500297200
20082----43000136900700167200
20081----4240011100014800346100
20074----3490001602004100280100
20073----35710012380048600435300
20072----31520022290010400366100
20071----32440028380011000349900
20064----2898003059003400221600

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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