KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,818,518,720 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(12.64-0.6)/0.6683 = 18.02 (High)
Target Price	12.03+0.6 = 12.63 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.6683, DPS 0.6)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD move up with very strong buy volume than sell
Comment	Revenue increased 5.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.1%, eps increased 19.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.8%, cash generated from operating not enough to pay dividend hence increased borrowings to cover all other expenses, operating profit margin increasing, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to above moderate level now, debt ratio at historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can signal better sales
First Support Price	12.4
Second Support Price	11.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UOB Target Price	10.3 (2011-02-21)
TA Target Price	10.3 (2011-05-06)
Affin Target Price	11.92 (2011-08-08)
AMMB Target Price	13.55 (2012-02-24)
Maybank Target Price	13.5 (2012-02-24)
OSK Target Price	15.27 (2012-02-29)
CIMB Target Price	14 (2012-03-01)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	39.07%
Dividend Yield	9.02%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	18.55%
Net Profit Margin	18.74%
Tax Rate	25.01%
Asset Turnover	1.7231
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.67
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.62
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	7.8
Cash Per Share	0.65
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.8118
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.4632
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7874
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.8554
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.461
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	28.0%
Days to sell the inventory	23
Days to collect the receivables	93
Days to pay the payables	63

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	13.165 (Downtrend 10 days)
SMA 50	12.951 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	11.945 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	9.796 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.042962 ( 0.032698 )
Signal (9)	0.032208 ( 0.018792 )
MACD Histogram	0.075170 (Bearish trend 22 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt as a result of volume gain driven by earlier Chinese New Year timing and despite the planned reduction of duty free and export volume

- Gross margin has improved by 3% mainly from favourable brand mix and some lower costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 504700*0.4/302098 = 0.6683, estimate PE on current price 12.64 = 18.02(DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.655*1.05 = 0.6878, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.97/14.34 (DPS 1.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6004*1.1 = 0.6604, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.55/13.4 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6223*1.1 = 0.6845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/13.88 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.6139*0.95 = 0.5832, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.99/14.92 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.545, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.36/15.32 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5054*1.05 = 0.5307 (5% grow from 0.5054, due to next year no more world cup), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.81/14.23 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.99/12.55 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

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