KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,892,287,973 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.29-0.035)/0.174 = 12.96 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.44+0.035 = 2.47 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.174, DPS 0.035)
Decision	BUY if MACD start moving uptrend while stock price is above 2.25 or wait MACD start moving up from another low price
Comment	Revenue increased 7.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19%, eps decreased 46.2% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but not for investing expenses hence spent 20.1% of Group cash to cover, gross profit still very high, slightly improved liquidity ratio but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio getting near to historical high, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from CPO price uptrend
First Support Price	2.26
Second Support Price	2.12
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	1.14 (2011-02-16)
HLG Target Price	2.23 (2012-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.55 (2012-02-23)
Maybank Target Price	2.5 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	2.83 (2012-02-23)
OSK Target Price	2.65 (2012-02-23)
Jupiter Target Price	2.88 (2012-02-27)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	12.69%
Dividend Yield	1.53%
Gross Profit Margin	25.48%
Operating Profit Margin	10.89%
Net Profit Margin	10.26%
Tax Rate	11.21%
Asset Turnover	0.5797
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.04
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.98
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.19
Cash Per Share	0.08
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.7314
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.4036
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1178
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2133
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5207
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-13.2%
Days to sell the inventory	80
Days to collect the receivables	44
Days to pay the payables	57

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.272 (Uptrend 15 days)
SMA 50	2.174 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.976 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.537 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.035137 ( 0.002364 )
Signal (9)	0.043372 ( 0.002059 )
MACD Histogram	0.008235 (Bearish trend 7 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt mainly due to lower profit contribution from jointly controlled entities coupled with higher foreign exchange losses, provision of doubtful debts in Wood Products segment

- Higher revenue due mainly to higher capacity utilisation of processing plants in Palm and Bio-Integration business segment

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 949709*0.15/818617 = 0.174, estimate PE on current price 2.29 = 12.96(DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0841*4/2 = 0.1682, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.32/10.49 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0876*4*0.9 = 0.3154, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.18/8.56 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0583*4*0.9 = 0.2099, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.2/13.29 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.2 = 0.2482, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/10.44 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0444*4*1.1 = 0.1954, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.84/11.41 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.21/13.94 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

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