KLCI Stock - HARTA / 5168 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,886,453,020 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(7.9-0.18)/0.547 = 14.11 (High)
Target Price	7.11+0.18 = 7.29 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.547, DPS 0.18)
Decision	Not interested unless volume increase and stock price uptrend above SMA 20
Comment	Revenue increased 5.4% and is continuing increasing all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.6%), eps increased 9.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.7%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, operating profit margin decreasing, stronger liquidity ratio from high to strong level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio at healthy level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from strengthening of USD dollar against Ringgit, affect by increase in Nitrile material price
First Support Price	7.8
Second Support Price	7.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	7.18 (2011-07-07)
RHB Target Price	6.06 (2011-09-09)
Affin Target Price	7.33 (2011-11-09)
Maybank Target Price	8.5 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price	7.7 (2012-02-17)
HLG Target Price	7.7 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	7.06 (2012-02-23)
OSK Target Price	9.39 (2012-02-23)
ECM Target Price	7.82 (2012-03-12)
Kenanga Target Price	8.32 (2012-03-28)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	36.39%
Dividend Yield	2.28%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	26.48%
Net Profit Margin	26.41%
Tax Rate	20.72%
Asset Turnover	1.2143
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.61
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.61
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.95
Cash Per Share	0.45
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.2043
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.0526
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.9239
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.238
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1921
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	31.1%
Days to sell the inventory	58
Days to collect the receivables	40
Days to pay the payables	29

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	7.97 (Downtrend 12 days)
SMA 50	7.888 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.811 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	6.091 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.023423 ( 0.006832 )
Signal (9)	0.056275 ( 0.008213 )
MACD Histogram	0.032852 (Bearish trend 35 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):
- The significant increase in revenue than FY11Q3 is in line with the Group’s continuous expansion in production capacity and increase in demand however, the pbt margin reduced due to increase in raw material prices of nitrile latex and more competitive sales pricing

- Higher pbt than FY12Q2 basically due to the increase in sales revenue and the reduction in the net loss in foreign exchange of RM6,410,000

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 587720*0.34/365340 = 0.547, estimate PE on current price 7.9 = 14.11(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.1263*4 = 0.5052, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.17/10.41 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1501*4 = 0.6004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.31/8.69 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1438*4*1.05 = 0.604, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.4/8.05 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1351*4*1.1 = 0.5944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.99/8.77 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1293*4*1.1 = 0.5689, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.86/8.28 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1708*4*1.05 = 0.7174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/8.24 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1915*4 = 0.766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.91/9.43 (DPS 0.19)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1535*4 = 0.614, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1366*4 = 0.5464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.95/9.9 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1088*4 = 0.4352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.59/10.78 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.55/6.01 (DPS 0.12)

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