KLCI Stock - MBMR / 5983 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,204,617,354 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.94-0.06)/0.5326 = 9.16 (Moderate)
Target Price	5.33+0.06 = 5.39 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.5326, DPS 0.06)
Decision	BUY if MACD start move toward to bullish trend and got strong buy volume than sell
Comment	Revenue increased 27.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 45.2%, eps decreased 26.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.6%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses but cash from borrowings more than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin slightly decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to moderate level now, debt ratio increased to historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of sales of more car model
First Support Price	4.9
Second Support Price	4.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	3.45 (2011-06-03)
OSK Target Price	3.69 (2012-02-23)
HLG Target Price	4.25 (2012-02-27)
MIDF Target Price	5.25 (2012-02-27)
Maybank Target Price	4.6 (2012-03-09)
Kenanga Target Price	5.38 (2012-03-28)
AMMB Target Price	5.8 (2012-04-06)
HwangDBS Target Price	6.1 (2012-04-18)
RHB Target Price	5.05 (2012-04-19)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.25%
Dividend Yield	1.21%
Gross Profit Margin	6.49%
Operating Profit Margin	0.37%
Net Profit Margin	5.95%
Tax Rate	5.75%
Asset Turnover	0.8619
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.58
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.29
Cash Per Share	1.01
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2004
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4881
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7016
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6566
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3571
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	24.2%
Days to sell the inventory	57
Days to collect the receivables	55
Days to pay the payables	65

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	4.906 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 50	4.698 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	4.079 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	3.554 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.095884 ( 0.007428 )
Signal (9)	0.113918 ( 0.004508 )
MACD Histogram	0.018034 (Bearish trend 5 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to growth in sales of vehicles particular from the Perodua and Volkswagen dealerships

- Lower pbt mainly due to fee of take‐over exercise on Hirotako Holdings Berhad for which the acquisition related costs amounting to RM6.6mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1307129*0.1/245429 = 0.5326, estimate PE on current price 4.94 = 9.16(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4606*1.05 = 0.4836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.97/6.06 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*2*0.95 = 0.4606, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.8 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.52/4.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1154*4*0.9 = 0.4154, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.76 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1399*4*0.9 = 0.5036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.77/5.7 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.5049*0.9 = 0.4544, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.22/6.45 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4772 (base on year 2008 eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.53 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0931*4 = 0.3724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/6.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0916*4 = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.21/6.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0568*4 = 0.2272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.98 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0381*4 = 0.1524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/12.6 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0672*4 = 0.2688, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.59/6.58 (DPS 0.18)

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