KLCI Stock - PERISAI / 0047 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	724,009,090 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	0.85/0.0693 = 12.27 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.0693*15.0 = 1.04 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.0693)
Decision	BUY if stock price above 0.8 and buying volume is more than selling volume or wait at lower MACD start move up
Comment	Revenue increased 36.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38%, eps increased 312.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.9%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses, very high gross and operating profit margin, slightly improved liquidity ratio but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio increased but still not yet near to historical high level, receivables and payables ratio increased to very high level now, benefit from acquired Intan Group, newly acquired Garuda Energy
First Support Price	0.8
Second Support Price	0.75
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

RHB Target Price	1.43 (2011-03-31)
TA Target Price	1.29 (2012-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price	1.2 (2012-03-06)
CIMB Target Price	1.5 (2012-03-08)
Jupiter Target Price	0.95 (2012-03-23)
Maybank Target Price	1.13 (2012-03-28)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	5.71%
Dividend Yield	-
Gross Profit Margin	67.56%
Operating Profit Margin	55.48%
Net Profit Margin	53.89%
Tax Rate	13.64%
Asset Turnover	0.1061
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.45
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.27
Cash Per Share	0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.5761
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.5761
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1766
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2556
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5201
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-119.0%
Days to sell the inventory	-
Days to collect the receivables	410
Days to pay the payables	1790

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	0.883 (Downtrend 16 days)
SMA 50	0.883 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.788 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.736 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.013987 ( 0.000232 )
Signal (9)	-0.008051 ( 0.001484 )
MACD Histogram	0.005936 (Bearish trend 29 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to acquisition of the issued and paid up share capital of the Intan Group, lower vessel expenses incurred, decrease in financing cost due to part settlement of the existing Group borrowings

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 due to impairment of two (2) cold-stacked vessels ie a work boat vessel and a DP1 work boat vessel amounting to RM18.74million in quarter 3

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 372924*0.14/753483 = 0.0693, estimate PE on current price 0.85 = 12.27
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0115*4*1.05 = 0.0483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.53/12.84
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0432*0.98 = 0.0423, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.02/10.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0108*4 = 0.0432, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.44/13.66
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.008*4*0.9 = 0.0288 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.61/17.19
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0087*4*0.9 = 0.0313 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.49/15.5
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0093*4*0.9 = 0.0335 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.76/14.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0589*0.85 = 0.0501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.77/8.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0125*4 = 0.05, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12/9.4

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