KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 150741170*3.15 = 474,834,685.50 (Small)
NTA per share : (202616-3396)/148712 = 1.34
P/BV : 3.15/1.34 = 2.35
Forecast P/E now : (3.15-0.07)/0.191 = 16.13 (High)
ROE : 13.17% (Moderate)
DY : 0.07/3.15*100 = 2.22% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(2 year) : (0.8376+0.7894)/2 = 0.8135 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 162036/96190 = 1.6845 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (76304+71494)/2/(305225/365) = 88 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless eps increase
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increasing, profit QbQ increasing stop but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, still bad cash flow since last quarter, above medium debt but slightly decreased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 2.9
Risk Rating : MODERATE (Due to high PE now but result still positive)
My Target Price : 5.37 (16 Jun 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- This quarter has achieved an increase of 21% in revenue over comparative quarter last year with earnings up by 72%
- There has been no increase in capacity this quarter since new additions are only due next quarter. Earnings are down compared to last quarter for the reasons that cost of our purchase of latex has increased by 27%. The fall of the US Dollars reduced revenue and impacted the bottom line
- Overall, the quarter performance is below forecast but with the latex and US Dollars effect taken into account, the earnings are stronger than expected
- The Group revenue for the quarter against the preceding quarter is an increase of 6%
- A drop of 3.7% in the USD/RM rate saw a drop of over RM2.0 million in revenue and earnings
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate PE on current price 3.15 = 16.13(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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