KLCI Stock - GENM / 4715 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 5906579648*2.73 = 16,124,962,439.04 (Large)
NTA per share : (10096294-11576)/5707554 = 1.77
P/BV : 2.73/1.77 = 1.5424
Forecast P/E now : (2.73-0.073)/0.2431 = 10.93 (Moderate)
ROE : 12.58% (Moderate)
DY : 0.073/2.73*100 = 2.67 (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.4576+0.5124+0.4935+0.4714)/4 = 0.4837 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 5810271/810204 = 7.1714 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (176252+197261)/2/(5158882/365) = 13 days (Good)
My Target Price : 2.91+0.073 = 2.98 (PE 12, EPS 0.2431, DPS 0.073)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 2.7
My Comment : Revenue increased, good cash flow, debt decreasing, navps slightly decreased
Technical Support Price : 2.5
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 3.15 (31 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- Total revenue increased by 14% mainly due to the better underlying performance of the leisure and hospitality business. The improved financial performance was due to overall higher volume of business and better luck factor in the premium players business
- Profit before taxation was 3% higher mainly due to overall higher volume of business and better luck factor in the premium players business and higher impairment losses this quarter mainly arising from the Group’s investment in available-forsale financial asset (“AFS”) of RM108.0 million. Included in the profit before taxation in the same quarter last year was an impairment loss of RM30.4 million on the Group’s investment in AFS
- The lower profit before taxation is mainly due to impairment loss and better luck factor in the premium players business although the overall volume of business was lower during the current quarter ended 31 March 2010
- Excluding these impairment losses, the Group’s profit before taxation would have increased by 8% reflecting the better underlying performance of the leisure and hospitality business
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate PE on current price 2.73 = 10.93(DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.25/9.7 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)

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