KLCI Stock - HSL / 6238 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 582676000*1.47 = 856,533,720 (Small)
NTA per share : 304399/549496 = 0.55
P/BV : 1.47/0.55 = 2.6727
Forecast P/E now : (1.47-0.024)/0.1128 = 12.82 (Low)
ROE : 19.61% (Moderate)
DY : 0.024/1.47*100 = 1.63% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.7747+0.7946+0.7809)/3 = 0.7834 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 358667/187647 = 1.9114 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (249792+187878)/2/(389549/365) = 205 days (Long)
My Target Price : 1.35+0.02 = 1.37 (PE 12, EPS 0.1128, DPS 0.024)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.2
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ increasing stop but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, slightly bad cash flow, above moderate debt and slightly increased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.32
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 1.63 (10 Jun 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- Profit before tax for the quarter ended 31 March 2010 increased 30% from 2009’s corresponding quarter
- Revenue for the first three months of the year also bettered last year’s corresponding period increasing 19%
- While the first quarter is traditionally slower due to the rains and the festive period, Group Chairman YB Senator Dato’ Hj Idris Buang stated that HSL was riding the wave of infrastructure development in Sarawak and drawing on its marine engineering strength to give it a competitive edge
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate PE on current price 1.47 = 12.82(DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1025*1.1 = 0.1128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.88/11.05 (DPS 0.024)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.96/8.75 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0233*4 = 0.0932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/9.7 (DPS 0.016)

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