KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 549213002*4.5 = 2,471,458,509 (Large)
NTA per share : (5352470-29008-549944)/549213 = 8.69
P/BV : 4.5/8.69 = 0.5178
Forecast P/E now : 4.5/0.4571 = 9.84 (Moderate)
ROE : 4.47% (Low)
DY : Not Applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.0954+0.9137+0.7708+0.7071)/4 = 0.8718 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 3888574/2054396 = 1.8928 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (989734+919732)/2/(8232952/365) = 42 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 4.57 (PE 10, EPS 0.4571)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.2
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, good cash flow, debt decreased, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 4.4, 4.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE (operating expenses increased)
OSK Target Price : 5.67 (07 June 10)

My study based on 2010 Q4 report (number in '000):
- PROTON's domestic sales volume grew by 8% compared to the last financial year and this was primarily driven by robust sales of the 3 core-models, Persona, Saga and Exora resulting in an increase in domestic market share from 26% to 28% this year
- The Group achieved profit before tax for the current quarter which compares favourably to the loss recorded in the last financial year. This improvement in performance was largely attributable to introduction of more saleable models with better profit margins and write back of impairment of Property, plant and equipment no longer required, whilst the recognition of Research and Development (R&D) grant under the Second Economic Stimulus Package was effectively offset by R&D expenditure
- Group profit was 55% lower than immediate preceding quarter. The quarter-on-quarter decline in profit was substantially due to additional allowances for inventory write-down and doubtful debts, higher seasonal promotional expenses, as well as higher R&D expenditure although partly offset by recognition of R&D grant
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate PE on current price 4.5 = 9.84
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

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