KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 3577401980*3.31 = 11,841,200,553.80 (Large)
NTA per share : (7568400-313100)/3555000 = 2.04
P/BV : 3.31/2.04 = 1.62
Forecast P/E now : (3.31-0.23)/0.2424 = 12.71 (Moderate)
ROE : 11.9% (Moderate)
DY : 0.23/3.31*100 = 6.95% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4186+0.3922+0.1427)/3 = 0.3178 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 6804100/4363000 = 1.5595 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (2388500+2924300)/2/(8627500/365) = 112 days (Slightly long)
My Target Price : 3.39+0.23 = 3.62 (PE 14, EPS 0.2424, DPS 0.23)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.2
My Comment : Recent 4Q revenue and profit remain stable, good cash flow, debt decreasing, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 3.1
Risk Rating : MODERATE (due to recent low price @ 3.1)
OSK Target Price : 3.01 (31 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter under review, the Group revenue increased by 0.9% as compared to the first quarter 2009, mainly attributed to higher revenue from data, Internet and multimedia and other telecommunications services, which mitigated the impact of lower call revenue due to lower usage and lower international inpayment
- Data and leased services revenue increased by 8.4% in first quarter compared to the same quarter 2009. Other telecommunications services also recorded higher revenue by 16.1% from first quarter 2009 to the current quarter
- Internet and multimedia revenue registered 9.8% growth recorded in first quarter 2009 to the current quarter arising from growth in broadband customers (excluding Hotspot customers) to 1.49 million in the current quarter from 1.33 million in the corresponding quarter 2009
- Operating profit before finance cost decreased by 12.8% compared to the same quarter last year primarily due to higher operating costs, mainly international outpayment, content cost, and supplies and materials in current quarter
- The current quarter Group revenue decreased by 6.5% as compared to the fourth quarter 2009, primarily due to lower revenue from data services and other telecommunications related services
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0606(average of recent 4Q eps)*4 = 0.2424, estimate PE on current price 3.31 = 12.71(DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4 = 0.1916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/14.87 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)

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