KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 529626597*3.06= 1,620,657,386.82 (Medium)
NTA per share : (667791-115591)/567173 = 0.97
P/BV : 3.06/0.97 = 3.1546
Forecast P/E now : (3.06-0.2)/0.2174 = 12.19 (Moderate)
ROE : 15.71% (Moderate)
DY : 0.1/3.06*100 = 3.27% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0575+0.9897+0.9769)/3 = 1.008
Liquidity Ratio : 545834/354345 = 1.54 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (290388+212544)/2/(1483681/365) = 61 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.04+0.1 = 3.14 (EPS 0.2174, PE 14, DPS 0.1), more than 9% profit from 2.85
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price less than 2.8
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, debt decreased, bad cash flow, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 2.7, 2.5
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 3.92 (01 Jun 10)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The profit before taxation for the current quarter has increased by 19.9% from the corresponding quarter 2009. The increase is in line with the increase in revenue from the hospitals
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate PE on current price 3.06 = 13.62(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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