KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 352000000*1.96 = 689,920,000 (13 April 2010)
NTA per share : 336767/352000 = 0.96
P/BV : 1.96/0.96 = 2.0417 (Overvalue)
Forecast P/E now : (1.96-0.05)/0.1161 = 16.45 (High)
ROE : 13.7% (Moderate)
DY : 0.05/1.96*100 = 2.55 (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(2 year) : (0.4074+0.572)/2 = 0.4897 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 149764/39563 = 3.7855 (Strong but slightly decreased)
Receivables Collection Period : (58716+100448)/2/(194870/365) = 149 days (better than last Q)
My Target Price : 1.16+0.05 = 1.21 (PE 10, EPS 0.1161, DPS 0.05)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 1.1
My Comment : Revenue maybe is increasing but still low, good cash flow, debt slightly decreasing, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 1.7, 1.6
Risk Rating : HIGH (In term of overvalue)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Comparatively, the Group’s revenue for the current quarter ended 31 March 2010 decreased by 5% while profit before tax and total comprehensive income for the current quarter increased by 19% and 17% respectively. The lower revenue in the current quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter is mainly due to slightly lower work orders received and performed in the current quarter
- Whilst revenue decreased by 5%, profit before tax (excluding share of results of an associate) for the current quarter increased by 4% in view of the fact that the work orders in the current quarter have a higher profit margin contribution
- The Group’s associate, Syarikat Borcos Shipping Sdn Bhd, contributed approximately 13% to the profit before tax of the group for the current quarter
- In the current quarter, the Group’s revenue was 9% higher, the profit before tax 140% higher and the total comprehensive income 102% higher compared to the preceding quarter, This result mainly due to higher work orders received and performed and higher profit margin contribution
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate PE on current price 1.96 = 16.45(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

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