KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 219435002*1.76 = 386,205,603.52 (Small)
NTA per share : (650813-1070)/218934 = 2.97
P/BV : 1.76/2.97 = 0.5926
Forecast P/E now : (1.76-0.13)/0.3556 = 4.58 (Low)
ROE : 10.7% (Moderate)
DY : 0.13/1.76*100 = 7.39% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4115+0.4499+0.3911)/3 = 0.4175 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 236939/157458 = 1.5048 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (79268+72204)/2/(358584/365) = 77 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.13+0.13 = 2.26 (PE 6, EPS 0.3556, DPS 0.13)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit QbQ increasing stop but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, good cash flow, below moderate debt and slightly increased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 1.6
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- For the current quarter, the Group recorded an increase of 33% in revenue from the previous corresponding quarter
- For the quarter ended 31 March 2010, Plantation division recorded higher revenue by 35% as compared to the same period last year. The high revenue was mainly due to higher CPO and PK production by 16% and 12% respectively and higher average CPO and PK prices by 25% and 24% respectively
- Healthcare Division continues to register strong performance which saw revenue and profit before tax rose by 23% and 91% respectively as compared to the corresponding period in 2009. This is contributed by the growth in patient number by 18% as compared to the same period last year. The robust growth achieved is a testament to our strategic positioning of the division which focuses on community hospital segment
- Food Division recorded losses of RM0.6 million due to lower total average prices achieved as a result of weakened demand for processed birds
- The Group recorded a decreased of profit before taxation over preceding quarter ended 31 December 2009 mainly due to the lower production and sales of CPO and PK during the quarter under review
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate PE on current price 1.76 = 4.58(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

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