KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 105204500*0.8 = 82,585,532.50 (Small)
NTA per share : 208074/105205 = 1.98
P/BV : 0.8/1.98 = 0.404 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (0.8-0.04)/0.1486 = 5.11 (Moderate)
ROE : 8.9% (Low)
DY : 0.04/0.8*100 = 5% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.4723+1.9229+1.6851)/3 = 1.6934 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 187052/74789 = 2.5011 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (78622+60644)/2/(429155/365) = 59 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 0.89+0.04 = 0.93 (PE 6, EPS 0.1486, DPS 0.04)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, debt slightly decreased, bad cash flow, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 0.76, 0.7
Risk Rating : HIGH (Due to bad cash flow starting)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue for the three months ended 31 March 2010 recorded an increase of 29.65%. Group profit before taxation for the year ended 31 March 2010 was recorded an increase of 166.30% over the corresponding period in 2009. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the higher demand for the group's plastic packaging products subsequent to the strong economic recovery in some asian countries. The increase in profit before taxation was mainly due to the higher revenue achieved and better margins due to the higher demand
- The revenue for the quarter ended 31 March 2010 increased by 4.24% while profit before taxation increased by 64.59% as compared to the preceding quarter. The increase in revenue and margin was mainly due to the stronger demand for the group's plastic packaging products primarily in the asia pacific region
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1351*1.1 = 0.1486 (10% increase), estimate PE on current price 0.8 = 5.11(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.92/5.26 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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