KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,294,886,917 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(7.1-0.165)/0.5412 = 12.81 (Moderate)
Target Price	7.58+0.165 = 7.74 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5412, DPS 0.165)
Decision	BUY if Bolinger upper band open or stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 16.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, eps increased 28.9% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 10.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, Automotive and Equipment division largely growth
First Support Price	6.8
Second Support Price	6.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
CIMB Target Price	8 (2011-07-19)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.55 (2011-07-19)
AMMB Target Price	6.5 (2011-07-29)
Kenanga Target Price	7.06 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price	6.36 (2011-08-22)
MIDF Target Price	7 (2011-09-09)
OSK Target Price	6.29 (2011-10-12)
ECM Target Price	7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price	6.9 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price	6.1 (2011-12-23)
Affin Target Price	7.25 (2012-01-12)
RHB Target Price	6.2 (2012-01-18)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	8.55%
Dividend Yield	4.23%
Profit Margin	11.22%
Tax Rate	27.47%
Asset Turnover	1.279
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.7
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.94
Cash Per Share	2.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7738
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2879
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8831
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.172
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4781
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	17.2%
Days to sell the inventory	43
Days to collect the receivables	23
Days to pay the payables	60

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	6.834 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 50	6.443 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.418 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	6.512 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.095778 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram	0.053385 (Uptrend 18 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to swift production of Automotive and Equipment segments recovery from the impact of the Japan tsunami, premium jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3, coupled with the higher day-rate from Naga 1, a semi-submersible rig, contributed to the higher revenue in the oil & gas segment

- Higher pbt due to higher sales of both Toyota and Perodua vehicles and favourable exchange rate for the USD

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate PE on current price 7.1 = 12.81(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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