KLCI Stock - F&N / 3689 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	6,472,732,689 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(17.92-0.63)/0.705 = 24.52 (High)
Target Price	12.69+0.63 = 13.32 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.705, DPS 0.63)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD moving up from very low
Comment	Revenue decreased 25.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding period 27.7%, eps decreased 37.1% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 61.3%, no cash generated from operating due to increased assets and reduced liabilities hence spent 25.2% of Group cash to cover, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high skimmed milk powder and sugar price increasing
First Support Price	17.16
Second Support Price	16.0
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

CIMB Target Price	13.1 (2011-08-08)
Maybank Target Price	15.4 (2012-02-08)
MIDF Target Price	14 (2012-02-08)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	20.89%
Dividend Yield	3.74%
Profit Margin	7.20%
Tax Rate	22.03%
Asset Turnover	1.4638
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.41
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	4.36
Cash Per Share	0.6
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8299
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2527
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3171
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5525
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3558
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	15.7%
Days to sell the inventory	44
Days to collect the receivables	59
Days to pay the payables	71

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	17.697 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 50	17.752 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	16.844 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	16.989 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.061522 ( 0.001618 )
Signal (9)	0.036404 ( 0.006279 )
MACD Histogram	0.025118 (Bullish trend 9 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to the Group no longer distributes Coca-Cola products and negative impact of the flood in Thailand

- Lower pbt mainly attributable to absence of Coca-Cola contribution, the different timing in the accounting of operating losses in Thailand and recovery under its Business Interruption insurance policy, higher raw material costs particularly skimmed milk powder & sugar and lower sales in Dairies Malaysia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1597694*0.16/362592 = 0.705(ROE 16%), estimate PE on current price 17.92 = 24.52(DPS 0.63 - 90% of eps)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2151*4*0.95 = 0.8174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.18/19.78 (DPS 0.97)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.3+0.2151)*2*0.7 = 0.7211, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.64/21.43 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.3*4 = 1.2(exclude RM53 million from sale of property income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.02/14.52 (DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2*4 = 0.8(around 5% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.09/18.07 (DPS 0.545)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.875*0.95 = 0.8313, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.58/15.82 (DPS 1.645)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.8236(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/15.85 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0072(10% grow from 0.4578*2), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.43/10.18 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.961(10% grow from 0.2184*4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.06/10.44 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.8195, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.58/12.04 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.8, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.79/11.29 (DPS 0.47)

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