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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2012 Quarter 3

CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD, formerly Ornasteel Holdings Berhad, is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. The Company is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of steel products, namely cold rolled steel coils (CRC), galvanized steel coils (GI) and pre-painted galvanized steel coils (PPGI). Its subsidiaries include CSC Steel Sdn Bhd (formerly known as Ornasteel Ent. Corp. (M) Sdn Bhd), which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of steel pipes and CRC, and Group Steel Corporation (M) Sdn. Bhd., which manufactures and markets GI and PPGI.

Company Info 
Listing Date2004-12-30
Market Capital (Capital Size)463,600,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorIndustrial Products
Major IndustrySteel & Iron
Sub IndustryInvestment Holding
Websitehttp://www.cscmalaysia.com/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.22-0.06)/0.0823 = 14.09 (High)
Target Price0.95+0.06 = 1.01 (PE 11.5, EPS 0.0823, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price strong sustain and uptrend above 1.2 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.4%, eps decreased 42.3% but largely higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 400%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, operating margin still very low, liquidity ratio indicate very firm financial health but not efficient to manage assets, gearing ratio indicate very low risk at liability but low payables can mean products demand still low, all accounting of turnover period is good
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.1
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price1.39 (2012-11-12)
OSK Target Price1.2 (2012-11-12)
RHB Target Price1.66 (2012-11-12)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity2.64%
Dividend Yield4.92%
Operating Profit Margin2.00%
Net Profit Margin2.60%
Tax Rate22.95%
Asset Turnover1.3183
Net Asset Value Per Share2.06
Net Tangible Asset per share2.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.6
Cash Per Share0.68
Liquidity Current Ratio9.7147
Liquidity Quick Ratio6.7298
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.3025
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1205
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1075
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale45.0%
Days to sell the inventory57
Days to collect the receivables46
Days to pay the payables19

Technical Analysis 
SMA 101.222 (Same)
SMA 201.217 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 501.208 (Same)
SMA 1001.219 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.268 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.004692 ( 0.000436 )
Signal (9)0.00473 ( 9e-006 )
MACD Histogram0.000038 (Bearish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band1.237
Bolinger Lower Band1.197

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Compared to FY11Q3, the decrease in revenue is primarily due to lower sales volume of steel products as well as marginally lower selling prices and the improved profit before tax is due to lower raw materials cost

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q2 primarily due to marginally lower selling prices of our steel products and higher raw materials cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 767892*0.04/373190 = 0.0823, estimate PE on current price 1.22 = 14.09(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 761877*0.05/373200 = 0.1021, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.66/10.58 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 771767*0.06/373200 = 0.1241(exclude RM6.4 million inventories write-down, ROE 6%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.12/10.23 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1186*0.9 = 0.1067, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.31/11.43 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1483*0.8 = 0.1186, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/8.68 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.13/8.56 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1854*0.8 = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.4/10.32 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.18*0.9 = 0.162, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/9.57 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2936*0.9 = 0.2642 (10% decrease due to global steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.55/5.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.99/4.67 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

CSCSTEL latest news (English)

CSCSTEL latest news (Chinese)

World Steel News

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-11-0920123N/AN/A-0.80%2.90%3066108574197984301206152223850.01650.06008603935689909250158570-76789274426303212530023319144105188052519963731713731904590002012-09-302.00%2.60%22.95%1.3183-2.062.060.60.689.71476.72984.30250.12050.107545.0%574619
2012-08-17201221.261.15-1.38%2.10%308615550809143862213710681162330.02860.043587836658237311648979603-76187724841274951151233191265415032316883732003732004478402012-06-304.09%4.66%25.75%1.3073-2.042.040.590.627.3164.88132.91050.15290.132643.8%625025
2012-05-11201211.421.15-0.72%0.72%24219324219377517751555355530.01490.01498485005549187118833368-77731279431674317233191880087832244083732003732005112842012-03-312.35%3.20%28.36%1.3435-2.082.080.660.616.630210.8336.72520.09160.083945.8%624411
2012-02-10201141.451.340.070.26%3.74%2768501206148349385642062295500.00550.07928489345640407716740781-771767335812462487742910699104578782331913732003732005336762011-12-310.54%0.13%690.83%1.420818.06012.072.070.690.6213.8319.1025.71810.10.090943.4%604213
2011-11-04201131.491.29-0.15%4.00%3206109292981978382151223316130.00330.08478625745740718874452292-7738302102177804877429106928801775752134943732003732005150162011-09-301.16%0.62%-1.3773-2.072.070.670.5710.97826.99194.08270.11470.102943.9%664717
2011-08-12201121.511.13-0.80%3.84%3002886086888293401936363303900.01700.081489602560221112341985233-77260616649472825829106921377216352694343732003732005709962011-06-302.14%2.76%23.27%1.1831-2.072.070.740.727.06554.68653.16110.15970.137748.8%734531
2011-05-13201111.781.4-3.04%3.04%308400308400319003190024027240270.06440.06448918855891617712634226-81475963317545425829106968771690292220403732003732006493682011-03-319.69%10.34%24.68%1.1902-2.182.180.80.5917.213811.25326.48750.09470.086552.3%765613
2011-02-17201041.821.660.131.10%8.89%258723103473411189947758560691800.02290.18548878835821779715156246-790732448071306565531204744677209782910693732003732006568322010-12-313.43%4.32%23.50%1.16549.49452.122.120.830.7810.35057.21695.17490.12290.109450.8%684122
2010-11-12201031.791.69-0.20%7.79%1926707760112388835861586606200.00420.16248612865481067911538013-78217160431365659133120476006658473062003732003732006792242010-09-300.22%1.24%166.42%1.2188-2.12.10.870.8214.418910.17118.05510.10110.091948.6%632810
2010-08-09201021.931.68-4.06%7.99%301745583341420538119831613622070.08470.1667935395614263151636110481-78375920145411900031204720556295562824913732003732006642962010-06-3013.39%13.94%24.83%1.1958-2.12.10.850.765.55993.79382.55690.19350.162145.0%754535
2010-05-07201011.961.57-3.93%3.93%281594281594391443914430593305930.08200.08208980365691498897744709-80905914903126448431204714777192612927863732003732006904202010-03-3113.32%13.90%21.84%1.0895-2.172.170.850.7812.73019.67186.54870.110.099153.6%605214
2010-02-05200942.01.550.25.36%13.15%2737458699364298011656237116911540.09950.24428642135267258574741569-7784661663983164342961831091632341289383120473732003732005709962009-12-3115.16%15.70%13.64%1.00666.26412.092.090.730.8412.67119.81147.50670.11010.099255.8%574016
2009-11-13200931.561.2-5.61%7.80%261482596190536057358138893540360.10420.144884801450266410664966469-74136510308031072957418310999973703992535083732123732124963712009-09-3019.92%20.50%27.45%0.9449-1.991.990.670.687.56245.43643.81390.14390.125854.4%654924
2009-08-17200921.421.02-1.36%2.19%16155033470912526199759434151420.02530.04068021794488389970872120-702471108749348619624183109105263856392687483732163732183881442009-06-307.17%7.75%24.68%1.1581-1.881.880.550.726.22354.84423.72640.14190.124340.6%393221
2009-05-18200911.120.9450.020.82%0.82%17315917315974507450570957090.01530.01537835164241468487445033-698642541681188445618310952980485242316333732203732203620232009-03-313.80%4.30%23.37%1.5355-1.871.870.520.629.41867.53955.14360.12150.108331.5%26338
2009-02-13200841.10.75-6.10%8.52%2050821372850585215197442086587680.11270.15667865584200169362550876-6929331732952634577041113200146950699091831093733173752833434512008-12-3128.59%28.54%-1.74545.8751.851.850.50.498.25575.31063.59910.13510.11926.9%41239
2008-11-14200830.950.81-3.96%14.63%389174116776828478110495273221008550.07290.2683915511537034180190115236-735321202621316156611132002334239003741973749743759433337262008-09-307.24%7.32%4.06%1.6022-1.961.960.450.24.66031.97990.64390.2450.196828.8%843810
2008-08-15200821.40.70.0657.18%10.66%435652778594549548201749529735330.13160.1953948031565763218417142624-72961468646145971309411320054049671431803433764323764325119472008-06-3012.49%12.61%9.87%1.4559-1.941.940.70.483.96682.48441.26450.29940.230430.7%614628
2008-05-15200811.631.19-3.48%3.48%342942342942270642706424004240040.06380.063886384747410715033467597-713513307719151974111320021620118791250793764333764336173502008-03-317.81%7.89%11.31%1.5253-1.91.90.860.337.01373.90731.85040.21070.17430.9%633915
2008-02-15200741.691.220.122.34%12.46%2990891302009163339308914969796550.03980.211583308244272014357354588-68950911830738685491798275779622304431132003764333766995345342007-12-315.41%5.46%8.35%1.56296.71541.831.830.780.38.11024.3162.07370.20820.172329.8%633410
2007-11-07200731.621.34-2.98%10.12%3025951002920234117675619016646860.05050.171785464446458318010489033-67454010458428889451348275775695305611133183765543767385761272007-09-307.70%7.74%18.77%1.5045-1.791.790.850.35.21812.81831.27280.2670.210729.2%653919
2007-08-15200721.591.52-3.59%7.15%373021700325294545334522971456700.06100.1212877800489115222277131185-655523955971768039538275777917739641567213764333769705571202007-06-307.92%7.90%22.01%1.1201-1.741.740.850.423.72842.38791.19470.33910.253236.4%705837
2007-05-0820071N/AN/A-3.55%3.55%327304327304238912389122699226990.06010.060181777342951115774168418-6600322937392646082757768514145686123775143775144756672007-03-317.25%7.30%4.99%0.7462-1.751.750.720.186.27773.03571.00280.2390.192959.2%1428320
2007-02-0920064N/AN/A0.1N/AN/A2828831024627178368135615486719660.04090.189781124842196317219680516-6390529885910648859895400876291640523683782103793344046842006-12-316.25%6.31%13.18%0.34875.641.681.680.640.225.24072.50421.02780.26950.2123120.7%30315353

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtOther investments (A-0)Prepaid operating lease (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)
2012331611880026944225199617482314217133931--102557545
2012229121885927422223168819380715687836886--115178452
2012127251891827193922440819344413706637820--1733351
2011423111901626356723319119285313799636386---40781
2011323111907626711621349420844915212836452---52292
2011223111913527236826943420276313001438186---85233
2011123111919428121922204020401016311142900---34226
2010423111925428414129106917625411485440905--25855988
201032311193132915563062001614718043541102-11792-26221
2010223111932929949228249119512013665241155-20276-90205
2010123111925330732329278613673213963144268-7591451632602
200942311193123158653120471188769580244178--900032569
2009323111937132366825350814130910784740180--1370552764
20092231119430331600268748994758061527588--1805854062
20091231119499337560231633846191078942467515166-1805326980
20084231119539344692183109149834870732308319666-1800932867
2008323111959835656874197308883153954407882416650817458735568
20082231119657360300180343211425173995471272866616724380097152
2008123111971636771312507920998413904449571331661081646551024
20074-197743705881132002071161224045131937666-2170632882
20073-195983704631133182136591376065340537666-2575163282
20072-196573690281567211758631565315342637666-3945291733
20071-19716368546686122218151390845165737666-3694531473
20064-20009369276827572203331188735401537665-4168638830

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesFinance/interest incomeDepreciation & amortisation
201233066101832-29113518669357
201223086153705-28612017769885
201212421932198-226400206310105
2011427685024110268223185210130
2011332061032010314249175510094
2011230028819301283760186510099
2011130840078731268490202910038
201042587232629023986423249994
201031926703974018232619739929
20102301745104401025138916729965
20101281594855134233951165910124
2009427374558646622303915579217
20093261482147129620017116109220
20092161550309219414056511389403
20091173159174133115701912029561
200842050821643562125364773410069
20083389174115661635040991010581
200824356525425458370735101810523
20081342942306048930562478610551
20074299089136456227254670010348
20073302595439565826917176310118
2007237302164836443335895679901
2007132730411922972958394547731
2006428288323503102578744737336

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentSteel coils
2012312291229306610
2012212301230308616
2012112301230242193
2011412461246276850
2011311831183320610
2011212971243300234
2011112131213308400
20104111212111212258723
2010312061206192670
2010212001200301747
201015920059200281594
2009412001200273746
2009312001200261481
2009212001200161550
2009112001200173159
20084135048851252583
200831350128622516446
200821350129053563355
20081135097688439280
20074134650221865386304
200731350107070408315
2007239050139237473208
20071135070956396910
20064135084078365611

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentSteel coils
20123135646046
2012277-12682
201215171295300
20114373-1875
20113428-4162
20112372-6057
20111418-29454
201041105021100008364
20103443-28
20102333-40058
20101584295800037090
20094204-41285
20093376-51717
20092484-11098
20091514-6065
20084261335562250
20083358593821888
20082437340257358
20081626200028141
2007413398113371915933
20073609107523772
20072383943650527642
20071728402618980
20064676230218904

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


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