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Thursday, November 15, 2012

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 4

TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD


Company Description
TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD (TNB) is engaged in the business of the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity. The Company’s subsidiaries include TNB Engineering Corporation Sdn Bhd, TNB Repair and Maintenance Sdn Bhd, TNB Engineers Sdn Bhd, TNB Capital (L) Ltd, Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd, Malaysia Transformer Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and TNB Coal International Ltd. The principal activities of the subsidiaries include project management and consultancy, engineering works and energy project development services, repair, maintenance and testing of power plants, providing engineering, procurement and construction services for power related projects and investment holding. In December 2007, it acquired Orion Mission Sdn. Bhd. As of March 3, 2008, Khazanah Nasional Berhad held 100% interest in the Company.

Company Info 
Listing Date1992-05-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)38,445,394,154 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryUtilities
Sub IndustryPower Generation
Websitehttp://www.tnb.com.my

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(6.96-0.209)/0.598 = 11.29 (Moderate)
Target Price7.48+0.209 = 7.68 (PE 12.5, EPS 0.598, DPS 0.209)
DecisionBUY if stock price strong sustain and uptrend above 6.9 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue increased 1.6% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.4%, eps increased 62.4% and was largely turnover from loss in preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses and still got cash generated from financing to cover all other expenses, operating margin recover above 10%, liquidity ratio indicate good position to meet current obligation, lower gearing ratio which saw benefit from lower finance cost, all accounting turnover period is good, benefit from strengthening of Ringgit against USD and Yen
First Support Price6.9
Second Support Price6.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Jupiter Target Price6.84 (2012-03-13)
OSK Target Price7.57 (2012-07-20)
ZJ Target Price7.54 (2012-07-27)
CIMB Target Price8.4 (2012-10-11)
Alliance Target Price7.91 (2012-11-01)
HLG Target Price8.12 (2012-11-01)
HwangDBS Target Price7.45 (2012-11-01)
Kenanga Target Price8.05 (2012-11-01)
Maybank Target Price7.7 (2012-11-01)
MIDF Target Price8 (2012-11-01)
RHB Target Price8.9 (2012-11-01)
TA Target Price8.2 (2012-11-01)
AMMB Target Price8.15 (2012-11-05)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity13.02%
Dividend Yield3.00%
Operating Profit Margin14.72%
Net Profit Margin13.77%
Tax Rate21.11%
Asset Turnover0.4052
Net Asset Value Per Share6.6
Net Tangible Asset per share6.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.05
Cash Per Share1.58
Liquidity Current Ratio2.0024
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6977
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9256
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4409
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5886
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale26.1%
Days to sell the inventory35
Days to collect the receivables72
Days to pay the payables91

Technical Analysis 
SMA 106.961 (Same)
SMA 206.955 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 506.883 (Uptrend)
SMA 1006.832 (Uptrend)
SMA 2006.585 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.01504 ( 0.000985 )
Signal (9)0.020314 ( 0.001318 )
MACD Histogram0.005274 (Bearish trend 18 days)
Bolinger Upper Band7.009
Bolinger Lower Band6.901

My notes based on 2012 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly contributed by the increase in tariff in the Peninsula and Sabah and units sold also registered a growth

- The strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against the Japanese Yen during the quarter under review resulted in a translation gain of RM93.0 million as compared to a loss of RM334.6 million in the corresponding quarter

- The quarter also recorded a foreign translation gain of RM93.0 million as compared to a loss of RM533.1 million in the preceding quarter, mainly due to the weakening of the Ringgit Malaysia against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen in Q3 FY2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q4 result announced = 36398300*0.09/5478000 = 0.598, estimate PE on current price 6.96 = 11.29(DPS 0.209)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 35554200*0.07/5462133 = 0.4556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.61/14.01 (DPS 0.109)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 35162500*0.1/5457914 = 0.6442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.32/9.16 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-10-3120124N/AN/A0.153.13%13.02%93348003584840012855005537200100790041976000.18400.7663884691001868110052070800932950026100036398300847560068745003071500395370016011004672600862630054780005478000380721002012-08-3114.72%13.77%21.11%0.40529.076.66.61.051.582.00241.69770.92561.44090.588626.1%357291
2012-07-19201237.226.49-1.92%9.90%919100026513600909300425170061910031897000.11330.5840871920002227810051637800886840015310035554200650350046509003280600395410018526005133200908730054621335462133368693972012-05-3111.81%9.89%30.54%0.4087-6.486.481.041.672.51212.20561.02571.45860.592237.6%3210779
2012-04-12201226.856.10.05098.73%8.04%86282001732260035851003369700281520025905000.51580.4746852103002159740050047800809810016210035162500398380025816003685000395370014022005087200904090054579145457914355310202012-02-2944.17%41.55%21.60%0.4015-6.416.411.021.662.6672.31671.11751.42990.587339.5%3310371
2012-01-17201216.725.86-0.70%0.70%869440086944002154002154002248002248000.04120.0412799507001698650049906500799490028930030044200790800918700409280039550001279003964900791990054566695456669339950472011-11-301.41%2.48%-0.4138-5.455.451.141.452.12471.79370.99171.67730.624227.2%296772
2011-10-28201146.45.34-1.50%1.66%9120200322069006605005467004539004995000.08310.091479064300129228004683490085853002320003222940050980005212300427200083405001143004386300395420054624475462447320099392011-08-315.97%7.24%-0.406264.0845.865.861.00.731.50521.1970.46161.46370.592413.5%316980
2011-07-21201136.474.89-1.46%2.99%77681002299800060140011185004402009030000.08060.165373088300135508004401110092036006220029077200362680025905003110500834080010363002074200626660054636555463655356230302011-05-316.44%7.74%-0.4223-5.315.311.231.151.47231.17220.68191.51680.602214.1%355385
2011-04-21201127.215.960.0452.09%4.45%750350015229900722300171990063030013432000.14150.30167461190015422900449759009995700388002963600029447001335100135180083411001609600257800859890044530804453080268520722011-02-2810.28%9.63%12.57%0.4131-6.656.650.911.931.5431.29740.86121.51960.602817.6%345180
2011-01-19201116.535.94-2.36%2.36%772640077264009976009976007129007129000.16300.163074829400157055004518880099652003760029640600167190057910018540083415001092800907400924890043747204374720283919322010-11-3014.85%12.91%28.34%0.4104-6.776.770.962.141.5761.32770.94151.52650.603918.7%354580
2010-10-28201048.886.440.21.49%19.97%786940032320100499900602210038840052019000.08901.192575880600161145004570030097121003560030180300797480035437002249100616170044311002182000834370043620604362060386914722010-08-318.78%6.35%22.18%0.39967.4386.916.911.281.931.65921.40690.86751.5160.602321.1%356389
2010-07-14201039.298.54-4.25%10.80%77233002245070012868003522200110710028135000.25390.645373276800142611004489300069932003500028383800569250022652001624100616230034273001803200796550043598074359807375379382010-05-3119.13%16.66%13.79%0.4082-6.56.51.321.852.03931.7151.15061.58360.612624.3%334882
2010-04-20201028.88.00.063.84%6.55%73891001472740012623002235400100010017064000.22960.3917727141001381280045256400683960032800274577003246200135770097900061630001888500909500707250043566004356600370311002010-02-2819.93%17.08%20.66%0.4015-6.36.31.351.642.01951.69511.04591.65020.622423.9%335580
2010-01-20201018.847.73-2.71%2.71%733830073383009731009731007063007063000.16210.16217199510012869900455684007609500314002642670015500005724004795006158700977600498100665680043569494356949355527032009-11-3016.31%13.26%28.32%0.3988-6.066.061.351.531.69131.41650.87761.72640.632918.3%315291
2009-10-26200948.558.080.1230.64%3.56%74626002878560026010015431001643009179000.03790.21157136300011958800453167007262800402002604630074099003832900279410053810003577000782900616390043401824340182368047432009-08-316.61%3.49%48.71%0.403440.09675.995.991.421.431.64661.37730.85161.74250.63516.3%274882
2009-07-22200938.577.95-3.97%2.93%7001800213230001240300128300010231007536000.23600.17397017970011202800442454006562300711002593430047115002567800243240053820002143700288700509330043346044334604364106732009-05-3121.03%17.71%18.91%0.3999-5.975.971.411.181.70711.35940.77931.71070.630516.5%324972
2009-04-15200928.66.70.042.62%1.05%690660014321200815400427006746002695000.15560.0622697051001084610044670300630430088000250348002486900162970017184005386500857200861200452530043345724334572281747182009-02-2815.07%11.81%19.73%0.3882-5.765.761.131.051.72041.3370.72091.79060.640816.8%345270
2009-01-19200916.655.6-3.66%3.66%741460074146007727007727009441009441000.21780.21787032990011633600455941006852100108100247358007781006300003654005385900148100217300516860043346044334604262243542008-11-307.38%10.42%-0.3715-5.685.681.071.21.69781.34480.75711.85130.648318.3%365682
2008-10-16200846.855.80.11.17%10.76%674310024755300275200302520028290025940000.06530.598469841900111621004408000066619001047002576190073414004036400320030052792003305000104700538390043351834335183286122072008-08-311.23%4.08%-0.356811.03015.925.921.111.251.67551.34070.81131.7180.631118.1%395196
2008-07-24200838.556.0-1.24%11.94%599740018012200440100330180029930028783000.06900.660968853900106981004268570058746001031002616820048558002652000278290052853002203800579100470620043350064354806348967982008-05-3110.92%7.34%32.72%0.353-5.995.991.341.091.82111.40980.8051.63770.619919.8%455386
2008-04-14200829.16.550.14.42%10.70%59725001201480012177002861700106410025790000.24430.592268500500106319004223080057918001063002626970036570001753800206320052892001903200160000512920043550344354902304852382008-02-2923.96%20.39%12.12%0.3535-6.016.011.161.181.83571.46560.88971.61410.616520.0%424885
2008-01-152008110.06.6-6.29%6.29%6208300620830016445001644500151540015154000.34800.3480681312001049920042461500598470010030025669700173860076310012057005285500975500230200505530043540804354080433230962008-11-3031.00%26.49%7.73%0.3512-5.875.871.71.171.75431.39710.84871.66060.623218.9%444892
2007-10-252007410.48.650.1630.86%20.76%612600023320400330000476360016890040588000.03870.930067724600101957004362770067693009830024096900986520047784003730200394270050868001356600529930043636714364146497458492007-08-3110.75%5.39%57.48%0.344312.25765.55.52.071.221.50621.24480.78631.81790.644214.7%374696
2007-07-1320073N/AN/A0.15.59%19.90%59107001719440014478004433600109180038899000.25020.8920675073001088340043111400712840015640024395900726810028312002652500392580044369001784400571020043636484361117506183162007-05-3129.89%24.49%23.66%0.338-5.565.562.091.311.52681.26830.80451.77860.638616.5%415299
2007-04-1620072N/AN/A0.17.96%14.32%56820001128370016518002985800155550027981000.35700.642766980000108106004359400072451001429002338600044583001728200182260039297002730100907500483720043576084353838522912962007-02-2834.34%29.07%4.62%0.2524-5.345.342.251.121.49211.19420.67091.87560.650921.1%6581130
2007-01-2520071N/AN/A-6.43%6.43%5601700560170013476001347600125620012562000.29030.29036661830010837800446942007806300122900219241002304100748400285000393350015557001270700520420043275634327563527962682006-11-3029.49%24.06%6.66%0.1685-5.045.042.421.211.38831.12340.66952.05010.670927.0%89114179
2006-10-1220064N/AN/A0.14N/AN/A562030020384200801300279110074190021612000.17330.505665092100937230045545600666520012130019546500763290037094002802700282890039235001120800394970042808024274852421658992006-08-3120.13%14.26%6.26%0.086319.48334.544.542.170.931.40621.11630.59592.34470.699748.2%157225321

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale financial assets (A-0)Coal mining rights (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative financial assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Investments in unquoted shares (A-0)Join venture (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Amount due from jointly controlled entity (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Marketable securities (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Consumer deposits (L-0)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Government grant (L-0)Hire purchase liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Hire purchase liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
2012438000--116300491200400163700-37893006476990041920062600-86263009800142400-28422009100-11448005843900328470022912008284600215004489700671000133880021467600892200697900331000894700-55100160420012121004534500261000
2012338000-15600111500503200200164000-1281006356470038860063900-9087300135001280010027184009100-8478009525200323160027250008133200300004406900678600134180021780700441600625200444100489100--16280009228004759200153100
2012238000-2370086600476500200164000--6243530038860048800-90409001350013300-28363009100-10225008613000318240027438007993400285004346600696600122580021322900409700638300335000489100500-16518009694004014000162100
2012138000-23900100000424700500164000--6182450038860028700-791990013800287100-26463008600-11643004917800313690027834007130000-4269300616900-223597001615400611200570048910038900-141400013203004115700289300
2011438000-3020089900407800600164000-31610006186140038860014600-395420011400264500150026459008600-120310048190003084900284960078522004410042205006272001334300173268009100007079005700523900-49100172730014551004116300232000
2011338100-4060073500415300-50700--58919300-11000-62666001800034200-27625009700-17881002660700304000031778006826300445004145900644700-1672460020370072350015000---25270001710500422760062200
2011238100-4660072400334500----58697400-7900-8598900180001460030024549009000-14536002865700298640031406006825300383004052900668300-17057100211300617600483100-3100-36699001520000370200038800
2011138100-5140061900305900----58666600-6600-92489001800011900-2474800900012430012628002549200294500031077006843700564003962600601400-17489800217000623400482000---37919001729100333880037600
2010438000-55900-245700-50700--588953004805005700-83437001800015200-24504008600725009333004267100290390027109007270800-3866300599000-18100900536400623600317600331300--31627001727100354980035600
2010338000---290400--1520086190057810200-54001470079655001840010700-226750087007250012282002669500284880030101006819100-3706200629400-20706700179500588600450300---8656001555700353300035000
2010238000---287700--770082250057745400-61001470070725001850011900-221900086007250013202003068800279550029815006731000-3626900675800-21440300165800424700533700---9407001445900349460032800
2010138000---277300--760083050057971800-8500570066568001740016400-209090085001260012586002794500275260029663006665400-3551600587100-21262000173900505000390700---11162002022900357470031400
2009438000---297300--790083360058227400-9200-61639001960015400-195570083001260013063002467800271730029522006640400-3470600579800-21458100235500294000206900---11579001454300414970040200
2009338000---293300---83930057806300-46100-50933005010016400-228230078001260012840002410200267310029591006573300-3384600543900-21334800214300445700211000---11609001441500330320071100
2009238000---284200---84460057692200-47200-45253003030015600-241710068001260013982002393000263430029270006515500-3309300541300-2219800024060038930052700---12315001289600334120088000
2009138000---330300---83770057490300-45500-51686001410015000-241870067001260015053002447100259260029180006394700-3219500552500-2280340026130036920077100---121910016590003527700108100
2008438000---322500---84410057475200-46100-53839001410014400-223030085001260013667002085500255190028994006337400-3124800563600-2168210025890034680069400---105830011877003999700104700
2008338000---311000---84960056957200-46200-47062001630010800-2416300105001260014845001994700249090028612006224100-3033000577900-21487900136100231200216800---102690012252003174500103100
2008238000---250400---85400056726200-45900-51292001191009900-2143600110001260014403001720300242190028452006099800-2930200592100-21413500136300207800406700---11011009955003080700106300
2008138000---240500---86050056493000-45500-505530011410010500-2137700114001260013525001759600236550028243006073700-2829900606300-21635800141300223000393600---112750012116003029000100300
2007438000---233000---85260056405300-45300-529930012500011600-1769500106001260013722001549600231960028035006274400-2730600620500-21963900145900226100226100---20155001067900323370098300
2007338000271900--228900---85870055226400-46000-5710200414009500-1842100119001260014506001759100223260027585006098800-2624300631600-2155930077900197700786900---193650016223002585000156400
2007238000274500--219000---84860054789300-44500-4837200407008700-2158700108001260016055002091900218810027145006048300-2525300642800-2215070079200209500591500---233520015385002570400142900
2007138000277200--200200---16480055100300-44100-5204200414008500-206840099001260015448001903900218670026911006248900-2426900653900-2260940071000209400368600---329750015418002389000122900
2006438000279900--200600---85680054344500-43600-3949700-10000-193180092001260015633001852100214770026758006424600-2314100665000-2458090072300212400184600---253470012447002488800121300

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesForeign exchange (loss)/gainAfter tax effect of interest savings on UCRISAfter-tax effect of interest expense on Guaranteed Exchangeable BondsShare of net profit of jointly controlled entity
20124933480027140018970015090081931006200870001340081900--300
20123919100027770019900026060073051001250060023800540200--0
2012286282007743002282002155400759900044003290030200626300--300
201218694400770018190094900849180017006940020000420200--200
2011491202002287001801001256009494600221004200021700295900--600
201137768100142900231400153700844160018300843004620019300---
201127503500908001672001681007089000120010370014200188800--200
20111772640028270024910084600655760020008910010700106300--200
201047869400110900276500962007249200600675001740025100--200
201037723300177500263500105300692410022005380018900573200--100
20102738910026080027090098000616650014004750012600152400--100
201017338300275600260000828006179900880040900450044500---
20094746260012670028110092900681950030900419005900242600---
200937001800234500273700107400619800017300323009100561400---
2009269066001609002868001005005846200201005130010300120300---
20091741460016800028520056400658020034005160078001437700---
2008467431006100250500108000663820016004650011500295600---
20083599740014400027520022280053625003200502009400202500500--
20082597250014760028010099600493080060005100014600290000900--
20081620830012710029000021670047426002000-9400242200500--
200746126000189700338200186500510970028600-89005440005000-
200735910700342500329200140600471680013500-103004321001000-
20072568200076300323400123600429220020000-235004376007000-
2007156017008980031420014300042527001600-30016010032006800-
2006456203005020034440016170045971009200-860053300-5500-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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