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Thursday, November 15, 2012

KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2012 Quarter 3

NCB HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
NCB HOLDINGS BERHAD is an investment holding company. It is engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Company operates in three business segments: Investment holding and the provision of management services; Port operations, the management of port activities that comprises the provision of container handling services, storage, stevedoring and other ancillary services, and Haulage, freight forwarding and ancillary services, the haulage of containers, warehousing and provision of freight forwarding services.

Company Info 
Listing Date1992-11-23
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,022,086,644 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryPort Operations
Sub IndustryLogistics / Haulage
Websitehttp://www.ncb.com.my/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.3-0.17)/0.4014 = 10.29 (Moderate)
Target Price4.42+0.17 = 4.59 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.4014, DPS 0.17)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA100 or wait rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.1%, eps increased 1.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.8%, cash generated from operating not even enough to cover dividend expenses hence spent 45.9% of Group cash to cover all other expenses , operating margin still above 20%, liquidity ratio indicate Group can meet current obligation but not high dividend, gearing ratio indicate Group is increase leverage to expand the business, all accounting turnover period is good which can generate some free cash flow, Logistics segment is expanding
First Support Price4.2
Second Support Price3.9
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price5.59 (2012-08-29)
MIDF Target Price4.17 (2012-10-30)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity10.62%
Dividend Yield3.95%
Operating Profit Margin20.58%
Net Profit Margin20.49%
Tax Rate12.87%
Asset Turnover0.549
Net Asset Value Per Share3.09
Net Tangible Asset per share2.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.74
Cash Per Share0.75
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2788
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.2454
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2673
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2462
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1975
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.9%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables99
Days to pay the payables108

Technical Analysis 
SMA 104.311 (Uptrend)
SMA 204.252 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 504.184 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.249 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.874 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.034918 ( 0.001088 )
Signal (9)0.034828 ( 2.3e-005 )
MACD Histogram0.000090 (Bullish trend 20 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.427
Bolinger Lower Band4.077

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt from Port Operations due to lower container throughput handled

- Higher revenue from Logistics Operations mainly due to the expansion of business streams undertaken by the company in warehousing, trucking, freight forwarding and project logistics which has shown positive results but lower pbt due to several initial start-up cost outlay that was required for the new streams of businesses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.4014, estimate PE on current price 4.3 = 10.29(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.4014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.82 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 171603*1.1/470253 = 0.4014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.04/9.67 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1631713*0.1/470253 = 0.347, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/8.47 (DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0865+0.0499)*2*1.05 = 0.2864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.72/11.77 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/8.83 (DPS 0.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4*0.95 = 0.2538, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/11.47 (DPS 0.69)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2922*0.95 = 0.2776(due to unknown reason profit dropped), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.46/9 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3408*0.95 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.33/10.01 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1623*2*1.05 = 0.3408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.04/9.65 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.4/8.34 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

NCB latest news (English)

NCB latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetc_assetliabc_liabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateoper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-10-2920123N/AN/A0.072.77%8.17%25294875659251838173659451671332630.09600.28341812673635927358063279063-14546101671341948642726436540162773030037335364347025347025320408982012-09-3020.58%20.49%12.87%0.549-3.092.491.740.752.27882.24541.26730.24620.197535.9%499108
2012-08-28201224.364.11-2.74%5.40%2614035036446314812182144662880960.09500.18731753610613496344167267856-14094431200961368152918356540161671930855434546247025347025320079802012-06-3024.13%24.16%29.27%0.5618-3.02.451.740.732.29042.25661.28970.24420.196335.1%494108
2012-05-25201214.64.050.563.03%3.03%242241242241586875868749408494080.10510.10512001370939020320149247870-16812215116931041424654016201281970467372047025347025318904172012-03-3124.15%24.23%15.81%0.4804-3.583.081.311.433.78843.74842.7180.19040.1671.9%592103
2012-02-21201144.693.70.12.45%8.73%23849492801651299190153446041589270.09490.33801932229905722300516231295-163171324259812359533974887476111900322074565401647025347025318339862011-12-3121.33%21.51%12.84%0.483311.53983.473.021.291.393.91593.87662.82760.18420.155572.2%49095
2011-10-24201134.13.54-2.53%6.13%24296169528260946143978459871114650.09780.2370191710691167624171619190128831675390165049728903138948747619215922173565302647025347025318151762011-09-3025.08%25.08%24.71%0.4822-3.563.121.241.394.75084.70633.40290.14450.126177.9%49295
2011-08-22201123.93.00.071.58%3.60%237755452321463618303228746654780.06110.1392209452210635802516322043612981184289010841860659105807874761477595804881671347025347025317681512011-06-3019.50%19.50%37.79%0.4312-3.913.441.091.745.20445.16923.99640.13680.120195.1%490103
2011-04-27201114.493.60.592.02%2.02%214566214566366713667136732367320.07810.078121574811119382232329195433288419251525950338206N/A874761212972129789605847025347025317775562011-03-3117.07%17.09%-0.414-4.093.990.951.915.72775.68614.5850.12090.1077103.4%482100
2011-02-22201044.193.660.11.55%8.39%22906788789340729200149286861549350.06100.3295215638011105523365952356202929181978522098050368987538029021706127185987476147025347025318198792010-12-3117.71%17.78%29.39%0.411811.74613.863.341.161.864.71334.6823.71260.18530.156198.5%487103
2010-10-25201033.953.52-2.18%6.31%22172365882654327149781402661166100.08560.2480214061511299552430301988452750189758516619110782740658029021554098134488424647025347025317211252010-09-3024.44%24.50%26.16%0.4127-4.033.910.941.885.68265.64544.44690.12830.1135105.4%495104
2010-08-23201023.73.570.071.92%4.13%227840437103503849545435507763440.07550.1623207181610360702143481730062899185746899190429974065802902948912082682372847025347025317493412010-06-3022.01%22.11%29.41%0.4247-3.943.810.981.755.98865.95214.76130.11560.103598.1%38491
2010-04-29201013.83.1-2.21%2.21%209263209263450704507040837408370.08680.08682108968105073321300317456928381895965496651293N/A802902483724837285127447025347025315471322010-03-3121.50%21.54%9.17%0.4044-4.033.890.851.816.0195.98424.87640.11250.101102.7%38294
2010-02-23200943.753.220.112.10%7.86%22456883141538534167986377551410430.08030.2999206371397533621606616940627401847647288183271688837263025926101517264380290247025347025315236192009-12-3117.08%17.16%2.07%0.402910.80253.923.770.861.715.75745.72354.73950.11710.104796.9%37293
2009-10-26200933.243.0-2.48%5.76%21833160684756077129452445581032880.09480.219620530149370302184161639222758183459816836323116634846302591452478176371202247025347025314295692009-09-3025.62%25.68%20.61%0.4087-3.93.740.811.515.71635.67794.34370.11920.106492.1%37687
2009-08-24200923.12.920.071.61%3.27%200752388516377727337528862587300.06140.124919790888518561890091345152797179007986110413063484630259819801849664875547025347025314107592009-06-3018.61%18.82%23.38%0.4391-3.83.630.831.386.33286.28444.82290.10580.095582.5%36067
2009-04-20200913.152.64-1.66%1.66%187764187764356033560329868298680.06350.0635202448886781719986714537327171824621334198423N/A630259249962499665525547025347025313731382009-03-3118.98%18.96%16.10%0.4433-3.873.70.791.45.96965.92394.51370.10970.098780.5%36370
2009-02-23200842.932.540.083.15%8.99%23229394618525921164155544911556150.11590.330920127538490402180041635102713179474920846910711094556623456101359680363025947025347025311944422008-12-3111.16%11.16%-0.47017.67563.813.620.71.345.19265.15013.85790.12170.108372.5%36775
2008-10-24200832.682.2-1.89%5.51%2481937138924814714186832665954910.06950.20312000646813717242661164581268517579851450898795469597623457571351246261099547025347025310956892008-09-3019.35%19.40%32.10%0.4716-3.733.540.661.34.94424.90173.72210.13820.121368.8%37579
2008-08-21200823.12.250.071.69%3.63%229172465699439699372129334628260.06240.133619673047669052420131639332656172529183815795626959762345742536534455811347025347025314107592008-06-3019.15%19.19%33.06%0.471-3.663.460.871.194.67824.63833.4080.14050.12365.1%37980
2008-04-30200813.382.91-1.93%1.93%236527236527497524975233492334920.07120.07122014345809737248889170809255817654564887756766N/A6234577889788961556847025347025314671892008-03-3120.99%21.03%32.49%0.4567-3.753.530.881.314.74064.70233.61090.14120.123669.5%37484
2008-02-21200743.343.00.082.48%9.06%22958388551758844204123413891512790.08800.3217198004080728224817417009427131731866224061118432915706093981056291405962345747025347025314060562007-12-3125.47%25.63%29.61%0.44729.29453.683.450.871.334.74614.7053.66670.14350.125372.0%47388
2007-11-01200733.142.9-2.33%5.85%2313366559345800714526838827977320.08260.20781945915788672252649159849242716932661625217843473806609361840871028161964247025347025313966512007-09-3025.04%25.07%33.10%0.4458-3.63.360.881.324.93394.89693.87640.14940.129872.5%36983
2007-08-20200722.982.920.051.95%3.53%222501424598483498726132599589050.06930.12531903220754438248761155961244716544591057455177873806609361539671983958952247025347025313449232007-06-3021.64%21.73%32.55%0.3343-3.513.270.871.254.83744.8043.77990.15060.130794.1%492104
2007-04-2320071N/AN/A-1.58%1.58%202097202097389123891226306263060.05590.05591936350777491240694147894243716956563544433373N/A6093612071207161143247025347025314389742007-03-3119.23%19.25%32.38%0.2137-3.63.350.911.35.25715.22514.13430.14220.1243152.2%5142155
2007-02-2620064N/AN/A0.12N/AN/A21160683400249249165320365171161010.07770.2469190619575421323685014405024321669345226727123053507875564741036745288760936147025347025311709292006-12-3123.07%23.27%25.77%0.11110.08543.543.280.761.35.23585.19174.23020.14210.1243288.3%14239302

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Concession liabilities (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Due to a Corporate Shareholder of a Subsidiary (L-0)Hire purchase liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Bank overdraf (L-1)Concession liabilities (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Hire purchase liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
2012323618281495807521211534576685361152635364338019330269153392749450--25623-38384468-13166227045-
20122211962585087907213615345841842466526345462464290492543431160452260--12447-38384164-6766222542-
201212162823127875462151153459177918074896737201414598952412601928047649-5350--38384-1289-208197-
201141341221287473552166153459927826485266540161197290942306402695736490-5774--38384851289-191537-
20113114652071926929218515346066769531528653026165638535233552-49815-----113--1917882883
20112122972203656922220015346141780955528816713175287195222144-47271-----473--2038882981
2011111822480416926221415346216960818528896058144868130200708-36896-----464--1949692884
201041372924674468852230153462927678865288747611565273842127555443546540----38384419--1968172929
20103118655680967342235152714817178284247788424691477404229158-44185-----192--1986532750
20102116596119265882251152714890180315147782372824916329203522-41342--------1730062899
20101114736557663622278152714963082091247785127426416074190744-38434--------1745692838
20094133806996062762294153415035984409747780290234585742163234-46660-----736--1686702740
2009311523743436100231015271510918678881202712022437906298174920-54494-----1249--1626732758
2009211523787265954232615341518218729512397648755532746515143312-54494-----2262--1322532797
2009111523831105535234215341525508983401737656167492656641155744-54494---912-1791--1426702717
200841152387494557423581534153279901354597630813381976943173087-54494---554-2114--1608422713
200839349918775575237315341540119203251885612588-6997194132-77880200--1593-1897--1610912685
200829349962615453238915341547399289401734558687-6530201688-77880200--574-6079--1572802656
2008193491006455360240515341554709282261619616781-6541186415-77880200--1213-6498--1630982558
20074934910502852502422153415619989239558162368346983176612-77880200--226-5621--1642472713
200736953109411489047801479-10273952335619642-5906163124-92000800----6866--1529832427
200726953113795480348121480-10144112528589522-5195159721-92000800----12921--1430402447
200716953118178459448451480-10204952314611432-4732161327-92000800----9156--1387382437
200646953123681453748781452159119850417945609361-6346138506-92000800----9407--1346432432

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
2012325294866713853131204024-168
20122261403184862986103204421-361
201212422419279-6535190279-190
201142384946587-9220196840108425
2011324296115057-6720188743988
2011223775517518-9113200503974
2011121456616-81441860804541
2010422906711971-1000119849172152
2010322172314210-11569179111149146
2010222784014816-760418528661226
201012092634135-82471725259885
20094224568797-440319061418177
2009321833111558-932917172939146
200922007528830-647016986980419
200911877645731-21326173447440
2008423229328598-6670213041281
200832481931545301367221384029122
2008222917214537271771924719893
2008123652716162-672119360698110
2007422958317422-1446118556133361
20073231336192001076361810412086
20072222501157401661318097310209
2007120209712601-9298172540557
2006421160612693-779417057739426

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holdingPortHaulage / Logistics
201234830-16804089738
201224884-17871287575
201214817-16260784451
2011410381-17908769542
201134280-18524961992
201124055-17891664571
201114074-16399154649
2010412094-17216368999
201032020-17706346680
201022832-17702353649
201013069-16235349979
200946566222817075558151
20093292769516214658417
20092950329318314642756174
200913119101413291656953
200843168112715567078664
20083292793317540875337
20082287580417331857925
200814330110616841971332
2007454484754077617446259192
20073746397151917167462782
20072151131191015858167123
20071375133438914931355908
20064643576023016364552088

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holdingPortHaulage / LogisticsAssociates
20123241-51774305-
201221266-584443324-
20121731-537534303-
201141090-540296956-
201131665-569372344-
201122946-413052110-
201113517-363773223-
201042544-2003110264-
201032746-541242543-
201022341-526804637-
201012295-444521677-
20094-2136307185503177
20093-2464516511816146
20092-2111326842558419
20091-34893301285840
20084-3653217075621
20083-3816421212088122
20082-40734017437193
20081-4462438121368110
20074-1597501416745361
20073-6195678451886
20072-876455151749209
20071-60335884236857
20064-1041464311351426

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES



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